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OpEdNews Op Eds    H2'ed 4/18/18

Syria, Iran and "chaos in international relations"

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The European Union foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, ahead of the EU's Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg, was unequivocal: "The European Union has always made it clear that for us, keeping the agreement in place is vital. It is a strategic interest for the European Union and we will stick to it."

Pointing to what, for all practical purposes, is a Trump administration May 12 deadline, Mogherini added: "We are doing all we can to work with our American friends to make sure that all parties stay fully committed to the full implementation of the agreement."

Everyone in Brussels knows Tehran is fully complying with the JCPOA, as stated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 10 successive reports.

Still, France, Britain and Germany are dabbling with the notion of sanctions against Iranian "militias and commanders" fighting on the side of Damascus as a means to appease President Trump. Italy, backed by Austria, is vehemently against it.

The bottom line, as diplomats confirmed to Asia Times, is that Trump's deadline to "fix" the JCPOA simply won't be met. What really matters for individual EU nations, as discussed in diplomatic circles, is to increase lucrative business with Iran.

Restricted access to US dollars

All this is happening as Iranian central bank governor Valiollah Seif denounced what amounts to a financial missile strike: "Enemies outside of our borders, in various different guises, are fueling this issue and are going to some effort to make conditions tougher for the people."

Valiollah was referring to the rial crisis. The Iranian currency was trading at 40,000 to the US dollar in 2017, but has just plunged to 60,000 rials to the dollar. Tehran hastily announced a plan to introduce a currency peg at 42,000 rials.

The widespread view in Tehran is that Wahhabi enemies Riyadh and the Emirates are restricting Tehran's access to US dollars. Not to mention that some stiff Washington bank financing sanctions remain in effect.

Tehran is facing tough days ahead. Even with the EU remaining committed to the JCPOA, a new batch of Washington sanctions, enthusiastically pursued by John "Bomb Iran" Bolton, could eventually force as many as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market.

If Washington withdraws -- unilaterally -- from the JCPOA, or insists on alterations Tehran deems unacceptable, Plan B is already on: Moscow and Beijing are willing and able to help Tehran reboot its civilian nuclear program.

That was discussed already in January by the Deputy Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Ahmadian. China is actively considering the possibility of building small nuclear power plants in Iran.

All that points, once again, to the ongoing, massive Eurasia integration project -- the cross-pollination of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) -- featuring, not by accident, the three key nodes: China, Russia and Iran.

And to add it all up, in this case the European arm of NATO even turned off the "aggression" rhetoric; the dogs of war ("Real Men Go to Tehran") may bark again, but even that won't force the EU caravan to desist from doing business with Persia.

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Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia (more...)
 

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