As late as October 2012, during his reelection campaign, Obama was still publicly demanding that Iran abandon uranium enrichment. But Iran had not softened its stance in the face of the suite of diplomatic and economic pressures. Instead it had increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and began enriching uranium to 20 percent.
The Obama administration knew that Iran was using its enrichment program to enhance its bargain leverage with Washington, but Obama felt that he needed to resolve the issue before it led to overwhelming pressures for war against Iran.
So, Obama agreed to begin negotiations with Iran in 2013 on the explicit understanding that talks would result in a peaceful Iranian nuclear program that would be regarded as legitimate and end the regime of sanctions imposed to pressure Iran over the nuclear issue. It was the first significant step away from the application of coercive diplomacy on Iran by the U.S government.
U.S. Foot-dragging
The Obama administration tried to deny or delay the removal of U.S., European and UN sanctions right up to the end of the nuclear negotiations, but in the end it had to let go of that form of attempted coercion. New political-military developments in the region also made it increasingly obvious that the continued U.S. pursuit of coercive diplomacy toward Iran would be both futile and self-defeating.
Those other factors included the rise of Al Qaeda's Nusra Front and Daesh (or the Islamic State), the direct military role of Iran and Hezbollah in fighting them in Iraq and Syria, and policy rifts between the White House and Saudi Arabia. Those developments make it incumbent on the United States to confer with Iran on the basis of respect for its interests.
Limbert is correct in observing that the Obama administration will never admit that it has made a significant shift in its Iran policy. But the reason is that the administration sees itself as upholding a policy of trying to contain Iranian power in the region rather than accommodating it.
In doing so, the administration still appears to be seeking whatever leverage on Iran it can find. The sanctions against Iran in U.S. law on the pretexts of terrorism and "money laundering" have created uncertainty on the part of European banks and businesses about investing in Iran.
Under the JCPOA, the United States is obligated to take specific actions to make it clear to banks and businesses that they need no longer fear U.S. sanctions against them if they resume business relations with Iran. But Iran has complained bitterly that the United States has not done that, and the administration needs Iranian help to get out of its policy jam in Syria.
More important in the administration's continued treatment of Iran as an enemy are bureaucratic and domestic political interests in such a policy that have accumulated over more than three decades. The Treasury Department has acquired enormous influence over foreign policy in its role administering sanctions against Iran, and the operations of its Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence have long reflected the interests of the Israeli lobby.
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