It's the oil, stupid
Jihad in Paris hit a calibrated conceptual spectrum -- carefully mapped out by French insiders (disclosure: my own neighborhood, the 10eme, was targeted). My initial instinct, as I published on my Facebook page, was "Syraq" returnees. And not your usual al-Zawahiri-faithful underwear bomber, but white, ultra-pro, black-clad head to toe, AK-47-toting, very well trained, precision killers, as described by eyewitnesses.
French intel, after the (gruesome) fact, swore they were monitoring at least 200 French passport holders who came back from "Syraq." Yet the beginning evidence -- or lack thereof -- seemed to be pointing towards a monumental fail by French intel and the Ministry of Interior.
Of course there were so many accumulated reasons for blowback; resentment by swathes of young Muslims, who feel they are treated as third-rate citizens; France's coddling of "moderate rebels"; Sarko The First and General Hollande's wars on Libya and Mali; France as NATO enforcers; the meek bombing raids in Syria; and of course 3,000 ultra-radicalized "born again" French Muslims fighting in Syria for the fake "Caliphate."
French intel did know, at least since August, that Daesh was planning a major hit. There were recent alerts by Baghdad intelligence and even rumblings of an imminent "French 9/11." France was occasionally hitting Daesh; mostly the odd training camp, but also targeting Syria's oil infrastructure at random.
Daesh is virtually a state oil major; Deir Ezzor province produces up to 40,000 barrels of oil a day, and other wells produce up to an extra 17,000 barrels. Daesh sells them to "independent traders," aka smugglers, for up to $45 a barrel. As much as pumping oil is a key source of Daesh's budget, still, technically, the fake "Caliphate" is profiting from an (aging) state infrastructure that ultimately belongs to the Syrian nation. To really hit Daesh where it hurts France -- and the US and Britain -- would need to rely on what they don't have; top intel on the ground, not mere air strikes.
Which brings us back to Raqqa. The fake "Caliphate" capital is a key hub for all that oil smuggling. It also happens to be a potential hub for a future Pipelineistan gambit -- be it the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline or its competitor from Qatar.
Make no mistake: both the US and France are very much focused on Raqqa. This "war" could be over in a few days if all those smugglers -- who are in fact financing Daesh -- were spotted and arrested (ground intel, again). Daesh's money flow would be easily intercepted.
And guess who's preventing this solution; Turkish intel, because for Ankara the prime obsession is "Assad must go," not Daesh. There's absolutely no way to defeat Daesh from above -- as long as the usual suspects, especially Gulf petrodollar interests and Erdogan's Ottomanism, continue to "support" it on the ground, directly, via endless subterfuges, or simply ignoring their operations.
The good news, as it stands, is that The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), covered by Russian air strikes, liberated Kuweyris airbase, not far from Aleppo, while Kurdish peshmerga, covered by US air strikes, liberated Sinjar in Iraq, west of Mosul. So Daesh will face a lot of trouble moving in and out between Mosul and Raqqa. That may signal the way towards Daesh start losing oilfields in northeast Syria.
For now, what's certain is that when Daesh went on overdrive, no intel service seems to have seen it coming.
They attacked Russia via a Sinai spin-off, bringing down the Metrojet.
They attacked Lebanon, Shi'ites as a whole, Hezbollah -- and indirectly, Iran -- via the bombing in the Burj el-Barajneh Shi'ite neighborhood of Beirut. Symbolically, that was an attack against the "4+1" (Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah).
And they attacked NATO in the heart of Paris (Hollande's "act of war" crucially implies an attack against all NATO members. Incredible as it may seem, "moderate rebel" facilitator Turkey included.)
The strategic benefit of opening a war on three fronts -- and attacking both Russia and NATO virtually at the same time -- is more than dubious. As much as Daesh is flush; profits extensively from extortion, widespread pillaging and oil smuggling; and is showered with cash by generous GCC-based "donors," that's a little bit over the top.
The Belgian connection
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