The Risks of Silence
A public statement now could pre-empt a catastrophic war. Conversely, the Israeli leaders are likely to interpret unwillingness on your part to speak out clearly as a sign that you will find it politically impossible to deny Israel military support once it is engaged in hostilities with Iran.
What we find surprising (and the Israelis presumably find reassuring) is the nonchalance with which Official Washington and the media discuss the possible outbreak of war. From officials and pundits alike, the notion has gained currency that an attack on Iran is an acceptable option, and that the only remaining questions are if and when the Israelis will choose to attack.
Little heed is paid to the fact that, absent an immediate threat to Israel, such an attack would be a war of aggression as defined and condemned at the Nuremberg Tribunal.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey's anemic remark on Sunday that an Israeli attack on Iran would be "not prudent" is precisely the kind of understatement to give Netanyahu the impression that he essentially has carte blanche to start hostilities with Iran, anticipating a mere tap on the knuckles -- if that -- from Washington.
2-Announce to the people of the United States and the world that Iran presents no immediate threat to Israel, much less the U.S.
That Iran is no threat to America is clear. Your secretary of state has acknowledged this publicly. For example, speaking in Qatar on Feb. 14, 2010, Secretary Clinton said that, were Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon, this would "not directly threaten the United States," but would pose a threat to our "partners here in this region."
Secretary Clinton has made it clear that the partner she has uppermost in mind is Israel. She and the Israeli leaders have used the media to hype this "threat," even though it is widely recognized that it would be suicidal for Iran to use such a weapon against Israel -- armed as it is with hundreds of nuclear weapons.
The media have drummed into us that a nuclear weapon in Iran's hands would pose an "existential" threat to Israel, a claim that is difficult to challenge -- that is, until one gives it careful thought. Now is the time to challenge it. Indeed, the whole notion is such a stretch that even some very senior Israeli officials have begun to challenge it in public, as we shall point out later in this memorandum.
Chirac Spoof on the "Threat"
Former French President Jacques Chirac is perhaps the best-known Western statesman to ridicule the notion that Israel, with at least 200 to 300 nuclear weapons in its arsenal, would consider Iran's possession of a nuclear bomb or two an existential threat.
In a recorded interview with the New York Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Le Nouvel Observateur, on Jan. 29, 2007, Chirac put it this way: "Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel? It would not have gone 200 meters into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed." Chirac concluded that Iran's possession of a nuclear bomb would not be "very dangerous."
Oddly, Chirac's logic has found more receptivity among some of Netanyahu's top officials than with your own strongly pro-Israel advisers, which now include CIA chief David Petraeus. You may be unaware that Petraeus repeatedly raised the "existential-threat-to-Israel" shibboleth in his recent testimony to Congress.
Petraeus: An "Existentialist"?
At the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Jan. 31, Petraeus said he had talked just days before with his Israeli counterpart, Mossad chief Tamir Pardo, who was visiting Washington. Is it conceivable that Petraeus's staff had not briefed him on Pardo's dismissive remarks on the supposed "existential threat" just weeks before?
According to Israeli press reports, on Dec. 27, 2011, Pardo complained to an audience of about 100 Israeli ambassadors: "The term "existential threat' is used too freely " If one said a nuclear bomb in Iranian hands was an "existential threat,' that would mean we would have to close up shop and go home. That's not the situation."
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