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General News    H2'ed 10/20/15

Losing debates and losing strategies

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Scott Baker
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1. Clinton as Democratic Nominee
Which best describes your position?
Asked of Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents"

This subgroup turns out to be only 452 people, less than half the total, so what is the margin of error on that? It's not 4%. Is it 8%?

So, 49% to 35% would prefer to see Hillary Clinton as the nominee vs. "someone else." The "someone else" is not specified. But think about this a moment. The poll's first question phrases the choice as between Clinton and everyone else put together. The "everyone" choice is not even named -- it could be Sanders, could be Chafee, could be anyone, but the question gives the impression that only Hillary is important enough to actually name, and everyone else is just "other."

Well, when people label a group "other" or "unnamed" it's usually because they think less of them. Naming someone makes them more important than anonymous "unnamed" people. And this is the first question, before we even get to ranking Sanders. This, IMO, is stacking the deck in favor of Clinton.

So, a slanted poll of just 1,000 people (if that), compared to 10s or 100s of thousands in these polls:

Who won the debate? (image by FAIR) DMCA
Who won the debate? (image by FAIR) DMCA
(Image by FAIR)
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Who won the debate?
(image by FAIR)
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What is Huffington Post trying to achieve here? Maybe that's the more important question than why the results differ so much.

To be fair, not every poll has Clinton trailing Sanders. This one from Gravis of 760 Democrats (not all voters, tellingly), featured in a One America News article, confirms Democrats' preference for Clinton like the Huffington Post poll, and by an even larger margin:

Who won the debate
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Scott Baker is a Managing Editor & The Economics Editor at Opednews, and a former blogger for Huffington Post, Daily Kos, and Global Economic Intersection.

His anthology of updated Opednews articles "America is Not Broke" was published by Tayen Lane Publishing (March, 2015) and may be found here:
http://www.americaisnotbroke.net/

Scott is a former and current President of Common Ground-NY (http://commongroundnyc.org/), a Geoist/Georgist activist group. He has written dozens of (more...)
 

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