These days in this region, as has been the case throughout a long history with most countries, it's not easy to block determined, resourceful, and experienced smugglers. Another is the fact that hundreds of trucks of all sizes from many countries travel from Syria to Lebanon every day and only a relatively few of the experienced local lookouts squinting the routes know from experience which trucks (one thing they look for is the size of the bulges in the partially deflated tires as they roar by), likely have missiles or other heavy armaments inside. One young man, a veteran militia fellow from Majdel- less than two miles from the Maznaa Lebanon-Syria border crossing, 35 miles east of Damascus, claims he can look at a truck and tell what type of missiles are almost certainly inside by the way the truck shimmies and sways going up steep inclines!
Even this observer, admittedly a fairly obtuse lookout, from countless trips by road between Beirut and Damascus over the past several years is sometimes able to make an educated guess that a truck is carrying heavy armaments even though bags of potatoes, onions, or bunches of bananas are mounded high on top of the truck bed. Especially when he recognizes the truck driver who is an acquaintance from his own Hezbollah neighborhood in Dahiyeh, South Beirut (Haret Hreik).
Hezbollah presumably has plans to put the arriving weapons to good use. Israel being not quite the size of New Jersey, which is the 5th-smallest American state, is an easy, even ideal target according to Hezbollah, because it has only a relatively small number of vital sites which are quite easily targeted. Their targets will include power stations, Ben Gurion airport, seaports, railway stations, key government's buildings, military installations and the kind of civilian targets a variety of belligerents have been targeting in Syria for years, without sparing schools, religious gathering sites, large public markets, hospitals, etc. Many of these will be damaged in the next war if not totally destroyed as has happened in Syria the past seven years. Israel will quickly pay an unbearable destruction of infrastructure price, along with sustaining hundreds of casualties despite intensely planning for a short war.
Hezbollah, Iran and Syria appear to have more or less accepted the fact of Israel's increasing attacks on arms shipments--or perhaps they do not respond just now out of concern for escalation. Despite direct Israeli strikes on various Iran- Hezbollah convoys, Hezbollah has assured the media and local allies that it will continue expanding its arsenal.
According to IDF analysis, to assure that the next war is short and its forces victorious requires that it also targets the state of Lebanon, not just Hezbollah. Its thinking is reportedly that Hezbollah-Lebanon's infrastructure and its army can be largely destroyed within one week or in any case in no longer than ten days. Preparations are being focused on this timeline, according to analysts at Jane's Weekly. When war ignites it will create massive international pressure for both sides to quickly accept a ceasefire and that's just what Israel's military is hoping and planning for. Hezbollah for its part is, as noted above preparing for the long war. Meanwhile, until the war does erupt, Israel will continue trying to stop Hezbollah from arming itself with accurate weapons.
Israel is broadcasting widely the IDF's message that: "Lebanon and Hezbollah will both be Israel's enemies and equally targeted in the next war" hoping that it will create deterrence until the IDF is ready for its planned quick war. Plus none of the key players in the region, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the GCC countries, France, Russia, the United States and EU want to see Lebanon destroyed even though a majority express a wish that such will be Hezbollah's fate.
About a week ago, at the end of the major IDF military exercise in northern Israel, the Israeli defence minister and army chiefs hastily conveyed an international message that Israel is capable of quickly defeating Hezbollah and when war does break out it's important that the Western states--at least the US--understand in advance that Israel chose this strategy having no other option. But some in Israel and elsewhere are criticizing this message and pushing another one which is quite the obverse, suggesting that there is significant confusion in Israel's government about the previously widely promoted Gidion Doctrine. The Israeli Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee subcommittee on Defense Outlook and Force-Building last week released a watered down summary of a highly classified governmental report on Israel's five-year Gideon Plan to defend Israel from Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and other sworn enemies. The report is strongly critical of Israel's lack of a cohesive security strategy over the past five years which it argues led to a number of military failures in the 2014 Gaza war and which continue to weaken the IDF today. The report blamed the political leadership for failing to provide clear strategic guidance for the military and also emphasized strong doubts that Israel is ready for the next war with Hezbollah.
An intensifying debate in Israel seeks the heretofore illusive answer as to whether its military is properly prepared for its next war-long or short- unlike the past few. Is the IDF ready for war tomorrow morning is openly being asked by the Knesset and military brass. A watered down de-classified Knesset subcommittee's report raises a number of fundamental questions.
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