The fact of the matter is that neither Trump nor any US President is going to scrap the JCPOA and if one tried, America's global allies and likely the American public would strongly oppose its attempt. Nor will the Iranians scrap it.
Iranians, unlike candidate Trump are realistic about what sanctions relief will really mean to Iran, recognizing that $20 billion of their returning money is committed to projects with China, where sanction relief funds cannot be spent, and that there are tens of billions of dollars locked up in nonperforming loans to Iran's energy and banking sectors. Iran has the world's fourth-largest proved reserves of crude oil, and hopes to quickly increase production, which could lead to tens of billions worth of new oil trade despite a slumping market. But this will not happen anytime soon. The World Bank and U.S. officials estimate about $100 billion of Iranian assets were frozen abroad, around half of which Tehran could access as a result of sanctions relief.
In the run-up to their elections, many Iranians are increasingly critical of the deal and Rohani is losing some support for not delivering on promises of JCPOA benefits. This month's elections will likely be viewed through this prism.
Recent polls of public opinion in Iran show that there has been a ten percent drop in public support for the agreement. A recent poll taken by the University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies last month shows that still nearly 72 percents of Iranians support last July's agreement. Last August the figure was 75%. Answering a question whether the deal was a victory or a defeat for Iran, last August 36.6 percent of Iranians said it was a victory, but as of this month the figure has dropped to 27.4 percent. The current trend in Iranian public opinion has shifted, with 54%, up from 43% six months ago, claiming that the deal is beneficial for both Iran and the international community.
So-called moderate supporters of Iran's President Rohani may have a major impact on this month's elections and bring changes to Iran. The Iranian public is sophisticated about what JCPOA is likely to mean for them.
Trump's claims that the Obama administration has given Iran a major financial windfall favoring Islamic extremism are not supported by any serious analysis. The Obama administration and its partners on the nuclear deal point out that Iran will receive over the next few years not 150 billion but more like 56 billion, 32 billion of which it has already received, leaving 20 billion to repair its oil industry, much needed infrastructure repairs, plus attempting to bring down inflation.
The World Bank also estimates that about $100 billion of Iranian assets were frozen abroad, around half of which Tehran could access to as a result of sanctions relief. A contest for available funds is already well underway in Iran with the public wanting the money used domestically and hardliners favoring it going to the military including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its hardliner allies. Iranians will be indirectly voting this month on this key issue and students interviewed appear realistic that their lives short term will not be much improved as a result of JCPOA but they overwhelmingly favor a return to 'normal' relations with the global community while acknowledging that Iran and the West have conflicting opinions on such issues as human rights, religious government, aspects of Islam, terrorism and Israel among others, and that these differences will likely remain for the foreseeable future.
Some Iranians, especially young people, are also vocal about the fact that while Iran's 1979 Revolution shook its criminal justice system to the core, the country's legal framework remains largely inadequate, inefficient and inconsistent, as claimed recently by Amnesty International.
Changes are coming to Iran and America and this month's election will likely point in which direction. This year's elections in America and Iran may well also have a major effect on which direction both countries move as well as their impact on the Middle East-West Asia region.
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