1. Causes: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict began due to a number of geopolitical, military and economic factors:
Russian Imperialism based on the belief that territory of the former USSR constitutes its sphere of influence, and its historical territory.
NATO expansion into Eastern Europe has fueled xenophobic fears of Western encroachment into the sphere of influence inherited by the Russian Federation from the USSR. Collective security treaties after World War II clarified red lines, defined the balance of power, and (albeit imperfectly) provided stability. This system was undermined beginning in 2001, when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and ended in 2023, when Vladimir Putin withdrew from the New START Treaty that Russia and the United States had signed in Prague in 2010.
Clashes over values have proven important as the Wests liberal universalism has challenged Russias authoritarian illiberalism. Each sees the other as an existential threat: Russia is seen by the West as seeking to restore its Empire, while the West is seen by Russia as intent on building a unipolar world based on its military, political, economic and (alien) ideological hegemony. In this vein, Russia also views Western claims of "victory" in the Cold War as a humiliating deception. Its leaders believe that this supposedly specious claim is being used by the West as a propagandistic weapon. Soft diplomacy can prove useful in dealing with this situation.
Lack of uniform and binding human rights standards. Neither the United States nor international organizations have been able to ensure the rights of ethnic, national, and religious minorities, as well as members of the LGBT community in Russia. However, discrimination also targets Russian-speaking, as well as Hungarian, Romanian, Polish, Bulgarian, and other minorities in the former Soviet republics, primarily in the Baltics and Ukraine. The forced Ukrainization of the public sphere has not provoked protests from Western countries or international human rights organizations. The plight of the Russian-speaking population has been used by Russia to justify its aggression against Ukraine. Insistence on recognizing human rights standards on both sides is crucial for any new system of collective security.
2. Sanctions: As currently employed, they have not produced changes in the strategy or policy aims of the Russian Federation. Our experts believe that they have been ineffective for the following reasons:
n Current sanctions have barred Russia from Western markets, but China, India, and other countries have stepped into the breach.
n Current sanctions have not blocked Russia's oil and gas exports on which its economy rests.
n Current sanctions have not significantly weakened Russia's military potential: In 2022, 100 cruise missiles were produced and then used against Ukraines civilian facilities and infrastructure. Russian production of Shahed -136 UAVs has also increased six-fold compared to 2022.
n Current sanctions have increased Russian xenophobia by targeting all citizens and, in fact, helped stem capital flight, which has been a major problem . In 2022 alone, $240 billion or 13% of GDP flowed out of the country. Today, capital outflow has been significantly reduced and Russian oligarchs have been returning their money to the Russian Federation.
3. Making Sanctions More Effective: Our experts suggest that sanctions:
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