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Targeting China's "adoption advantage"In the May 2019 "Chinese Tech Landscape Overview" presentation, the NSCAI discusses that, while the U.S. still leads in the "creation" stage of AI and related technologies, it lags behind China in the "adoption" stage due to "structural factors." It says that "creation", followed by "adoption" and "iteration" are the three phases of the "life cycle of new tech" and asserts that failing to dominate in the "adoption" stage will allow China to "leapfrog" the U.S. and dominate AI for the foreseeable future.
The presentation also argues that, in order to "leapfrog" competitors in emerging markets, what is needed is not "individual brilliance" but instead specific "structural conditions that exist within certain markets." It cites several case studies where China is considered to be "leapfrogging" the U.S. due to major differences in these "structural factors." Thus, the insinuation of the document (though not directly stated) is that the U.S. must alter the "structural factors" that are currently responsible for its lagging behind China in the "adoption" phase of AI-driven technologies.
Chief among the troublesome "structural factors" highlighted in this presentation are so-called "legacy systems" that are common in the U.S. but much less so in China. The NSCAI document states that examples of "legacy systems" include a financial system that still utilizes cash and card payments, individual car ownership and even receiving medical attention from a human doctor. It states that, while these "legacy systems" in the US are "good enough," too many "good enough" systems "hinder the adoption of new things," specifically AI-driven systems.
Another structural factor deemed by the NSCAI to be an obstacle to the U.S.' ability to maintain a technological advantage over China is the "scale of the consumer market," arguing that "extreme urban density = on-demand service adoption." In other words, extreme urbanization results in more people using online or mobile-based "on-demand" services, ranging from ride-sharing to online shopping. It also cites the use of mass surveillance on China's "huge population base" is an example of how China's "scale of consumer market" advantage allowing "China to leap ahead" in the fields of related technologies, like facial recognition.
In addition to the alleged shortcomings of the U.S.' "legacy systems" and lack of "extreme urban density," the NSCAI also calls for more "explicit government support and involvement" as a means to speed up the adoption of these systems in the U.S. This includes the government lending its stores of data on civilians to train AI, specifically citing facial recognition databases, and mandating that cities be "re-architected around AVs [autonomous vehicles]," among others. Other examples given include the government investing large amounts of money in AI start-ups and adding tech behemoths to a national, public-private AI taskforce focused on smart city-implementation (among other things).
With regards to the latter, the document says "this level of public-private cooperation" in China is "outwardly embraced" by the parties involved, with this "serving as a stark contrast to the controversy around Silicon Valley selling to the U.S. government." Examples of such controversy, from the NSCAI's perspective, likely include Google employees petitioning to end the Google-Pentagon "Project Maven," which uses Google's AI software to analyze footage captured by drones. Google eventually chose not to renew its Maven contract as a result of the controversy, even though top Google executives viewed the project as a "golden opportunity" to collaborate more closely with the military and intelligence communities.
The document also defines another aspect of government support as the "clearing of regulatory barriers." This term is used in the document specifically with respect to U.S. privacy laws, despite the fact that the U.S. national security state has long violated these laws with near complete impunity. However, the document seems to suggest that privacy laws in the U.S. should be altered so that what the U.S. government has done "in secret" with private citizen data can be done more openly and more extensively. The NSCAI document also discusses the removal of "regulatory barriers" in order to speed up the adoption of self-driving cars, even though autonomous driving technology has resulted in several deadly and horrific car accidents and presents other safety concerns.
Also discussed is how China's "adoption advantage" will "allow it to leapfrog the U.S." in several new fields, including "AI medical diagnosis" and "smart cities." It then asserts that "the future will be decided at the intersection of private enterprise and policy leaders between China and the U.S." If this coordination over the global AI market does not occur, the document warns that "we [the U.S.] risk being left out of the discussions where norms around AI are set for the rest of our lifetimes."
The presentation also dwells considerably on how "the main battleground [in technology] are not the domestic Chinese and US markets," but what it refers to as the NBU (next billion users) markets, where it states that "Chinese players will aggressively challenge Silicon Valley." In order to challenge them more successfully, the presentation argues that, "just like we [view] the market of teenagers as a harbinger for new trends, we should look at China."
The document also expresses concerns about China exporting AI more extensively and intensively than the U.S., saying that China is "already crossing borders" by helping to build facial databases in Zimbabwe and selling image recognition and smart city systems to Malaysia. If allowed to become "the unambiguous leader in AI," it says that "China could end up writing much of the rulebook of international norms around the deployment of AI" and that it would "broaden China's sphere of influence amongst an international community that increasingly looks to the pragmatic authoritarianism of China and Singapore as an alternative to Western liberal democracy."
What will replace America's "legacy systems"?Given that the document makes it quite clear that "legacy systems" in the U.S. are impeding its ability to prevent China from "leapfrogging" ahead in AI and then dominating it for the foreseeable future, it is also important to examine what the document suggests should replace these "legacy systems" in the U.S.
As previously mentioned, one "legacy system" cited early on in the presentation is the main means of payment for most Americans, cash and credit/debit cards. The presentation asserts, in contrast to these "legacy systems" that the best and most advanced system is moving entirely to smartphone-based digital wallets.
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