Most Turkmen live in Kurdish territories. And here's the ultimate complicating factor; the majority happens to live in the Jarablus region, currently controlled by ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. It's exactly this area that is cutting the geographic connection between the two Kurdish cantons, Kobani and Afrin.
So imagine a continuous Syrian Kurd control/autonomy/corridor all across the Turkish-Syrian border. For Ankara this is the ultimate nightmare. Ankara's strategy is to move its Turkmen pawns, with added "moderate rebels," all across the Jarablus region. The pretext: wipe Daesh off the map. The real reason: prevent the two Kurdish cantons -- Afrin and Kobani -- from merging.
And once again Ankara will be directly pitted against Moscow.
The Russian strategy rests on very good relations with Syrian Kurds. Moscow not only supports the Syrian Kurd canton merger, but qualifies it as an important step on the way to a new Syria rid of takfiris. Russia will even officially recognize the PYD (Democratic Union Party) and allow them a representative office in Russia.
Ankara regards the PYD and its paramilitary arm, the YPG (People's Protection Units) as branches of the PKK. It gets curioser an curioser when we know that both Moscow and Washington are cooperating with the YPG against ISIS/ISIL/Daesh.
The predictable All-Out Ankara Freak Out came in the form of Sultan Erdogan declaring the Euphrates a "red line" for the YPG. If they try to move westward to fight Daesh, sending them out of the Jarablus area, the Turkish Army will strike.
It's absolutely key for Turkey to control this area between Jarablus and Afrin because here is the site of the would-be "safe zone," actually a no-fly zone, which Ankara dreams of implementing using the 3 billion euros just extorted from the EU to house refugees but also control northern Syria. Turkmen would be in charge of the area -- as well as the Azez-Aleppo line, assuming the SAA does not clear it for good.
The case for UEBA
So Ankara is looking at two very unpleasant Turkmen-filled scenarios to say the least.
Turkmen instrumentalized by Ankara to become gatekeepers against the Kurdish YPG; that means a nasty sectarian divide, orchestrated by Turkey, whose greatest loser is the unity of the Syrian nation.
Meanwhile, the SAA and Russian air power are on the verge of total control of Turkmen Mountain.
This will allow the "4+1" to go much deeper fighting against the so-called Army of Conquest and its twin-headed reptile, Jabhat al-Nusra (a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria) and Ahrar al-Sham, the whole lot "supported" and weaponized by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The "4+1" inexorable advance comes with extra benefits; the end of all rat lines in the region, and no more possible threats to Russia's air base in Hmeimim.
Make no mistake that Moscow will inflict as much pain on Sultan Erdogan as possible.
As Turkish newspaper Radikal quoted him, Prof. Abbas Vali of Bogazici University confirmed, "The PYD was pleased about Russia's intervention in Syria. An alliance between the PYD and Russia is inevitable. Russia's bombardment of the radical Islamist groups on the ground will have a huge impact on the PYD operations."
So no matter which way we look, Turkey and Russia are on a serious collision course in Syria. Moscow will support Syrian Kurds no holds barred as they push to link the three major Kurdish cantons in northern Syria into a unified Rojava.
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