Countries and special interest groups often oppose space arms control because space weapons are not easily verifiable. It is often hard to determine if a satellite is a weapon because there are many ways that a satellite can be used as a weapon. However, it easy to verify many types of actions in space such as a close approach or a collusion that creates a lot of debris. In addition, it is difficult to use a satellite to harm another satellite and militaries are more likely to use custom designed weapons than to try and modify a satellite.
Space situational awareness data has been a priority for our county and many other countries. This allowed us to prove that Russia tested a weapon in the summer of 2020. The issue of equality always comes up in all arms control treaties, as all sides must benefit in some way. The U.S. has integrated space enhancement capabilities into its national security infrastructure more than Russia and China. Russia has concentrated on counterspace capabilities, particularly electronic warfare. China is developing integrated counterspace and integrated space enhancement capabilities. Restricting ASAT capabilities would impact China and Russia more than the U.S., destroying the equitability factor. Limits or deployments on space-based weapons could meet the equality test, as stated by Samson and Weeken.
Our country must build a bond with our adversaries - China and Russia - on what constitutes acceptable behavior in space, something like the discussions that led to the Incidents at Sea Agreement during the Cold War. These discussions must include how the existing rules of armed combat apply to space. We should also lead on a ban of debris creating ASAT tests. All agreements must start out as trilateral (U.S., Russia, and China) agreements and expand to other nation-states and city-states.
If the world works together, we can focus on space as the final frontier and not the next theater for war.
Jason Sibert is Executive Director of the Peace Economy Project.
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