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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 2/20/16

Could a Bomb Blast in Ankara Change the Outcome of the War in Syria?

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"'Although the PKK and the PYD are denying it, the information from the Interior Ministry and intelligence show that they are behind [the attack],' said Erdogan, referring to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD)...

"'This process will convince our friends in the international community to understand how tight the PYD and YPG's connection to the PKK is," Erdogan said, repeating that Turkey had insisted on the link, submitting documents." (Hurriyet)

See? This is all about convincing Washington that they've backed the wrong horse. Erdogan wants to muscle-out the Kurds, so he can take their place. That way, he can achieve his dream of annexing a 10-by-70 mile-wide strip of Syrian territory just south of the Turkish border that he wants to convert into a "safe zone" to provide a sanctuary for Sunni militants. The plan will prevent the Kurds from creating a contiguous state on the Syrian side of the border and, also, it will help keep open vital supply lines for jihadist allies conducting military operations in other parts of the Syria.

The Obama administration was sympathetic to this plan at one time, but Russia's entry into the war in late September changed everything. Now the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Iranian Quds Forces and Hezbollah are closing in on the Turkish border which has dashed any chance Turkey might have had to seize and hold Syrian territory without a direct confrontation with Russia, which Washington definitely does not want. Bottom line: Washington has adjusted its strategy to the new reality on the ground while Turkey and the Saudis are still grasping at straws thinking the war can be won.

Sealing the border is a top priority for Moscow which pins its hopes for ending the war largely on its ability to stop the flow of Sunni fighters crossing over from Turkey. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: "The key point for the ceasefire to work is a task of blocking illegal trafficking across the Turkish-Syrian border, which supports the militants. Without closing the border it is difficult to expect the ceasefire to take place." (The ceasefire is scheduled to begin on Friday)

So Russia is going to persist in its plan to close the border regardless of what Turkey does. At the same time, it has tried to signal to Turkey that if it goes ahead with its plan to invade Syria, there will be hell to pay. Check this out from Today's Zaman:

"A senior Russian official threatened Turkey, saying that it will face Russia and Iran if carries out a ground intervention in Syria... Russia proved in Syria how powerful its weapons are and showed everybody that it will not hesitate to use them if necessary." ("Official: Turkey to face Russia, Iran if intervenes in Syria")

Interestingly, the Russian foreign ministry delivered another chilly warning early Friday after receiving reports that "Turkish military vehicles had crossed into an area in Syria controlled by the Kurds and were starting to dig trenches near Meidan Ekbis, a town in Aleppo province." Dozens of Turkish military vehicles advanced 200 meters into the Syrian Kurdish region in Aleppo province on Thursday." (ANHA news agency)

According to AMN News:

"Asked about the implications of any ground incursion into Syria, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters: 'We view Syria's territory as the territory of a sovereign state. Any incursion into the territory of a sovereign state is illegal.'" (AMN News)

The question is whether Putin will engage the Turkish military in a full-blown war just to recapture a few hundred meters of Syrian sovereign territory. I expect Putin will let the incident slide and chalk it up to "frustration" on Turkey's part. If that's the only victory that Erdogan requires, then it's a price that's worth paying. Putin has to stay focused on the big picture, and not get diverted by trivialities.

Of course, if Erdogan plans to push further into Syria, then there's going to be trouble. After all, Moscow's hands are tied. The only way it can hope to extricate itself from the conflict in Syria is by defeating the jihadists as quickly as possible, clearing out the hotbeds of resistance, and reestablishing security. If Turkey enters the war, that throws a wrench in everything. The tit-for-tat fighting will drag on for years, and there will probably never be a clear winner. This is exactly what Putin hopes to avoid. So, if Turkey launches an invasion and sends in ground troops, Putin will be forced to strike with everything he's got to see if one, big shock-and-awe display of raw military power is enough to reverse the trend and send Erdogan's legions packing. If it doesn't work, and Turkey digs in, Syria could devolve into the mother of all quagmires, which is why we're a little surprised that Obama is not pursuing a plan that would draw Turkey deeper into the fray, after all, Washington gains nothing strategically from its support for the YPG. In a way, the alliance makes no sense. Does Washington care about Kurdish aspirations for a homeland?

No. Does Obama want to help Putin clear the area North of Aleppo of jihadists, militants and opposition forces?

Of course not. Then what does Washington get?

Nothing.

An alliance with Erdogan, on the other hand, provides Washington with the footsoldiers it needs to fight its proxy war with Russia. It also creates a situation where Russia could get bogged down for years in a conflict that could drain its resources, undermine morale, and precipitate social unrest at home. Isn't that exactly what Washington wants?

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Mike is a freelance writer living in Washington state.

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