Unclearness about the danger of the variant
So far, it has not been conclusively proven that people who have become infected with the new variant become more seriously ill, are more often hospitalized or have a higher risk of dying from the infection. However, a first preprint by researchers from the UK shows that mortality could be 35 percent higher. Specifically, this means: For men between 70 and 84 years of age, the risk of death rose from five to six percent according to these preliminary calculations, and for men older than 85 from 17 to almost 22 percent.
Would the new version to a more severe disease course result would be that a greater threat to the infected themselves - for the population and the health system as such is an increased rate of infection but ultimately far more dangerous.
Because a virus that spreads faster and more aggressively infects more people in the same time. In the end, more deaths could through increased contagion total produced as by a more severe disease.
Fundamental changes are not expected
Basically, a virus doesn't care whether the infected person dies or survives. It is only important for the continuation that it infects as many people as possible during this time. However, experts do not assume that the virus will change significantly - it is already very well adapted to the conditions. In particular, the high viral load and the high number of transmissions before the onset of the first symptoms are extremely clever and efficient from a virus perspective.
What favors mutations?
In principle, mutations become more likely the more frequently the viral genetic material is copied; i.e., the more human cells are infected. That means: the more people are infected , the higher the probability of mutations.
Relevant mutations could possibly occur more frequently as soon as the conditions change. The lockdown is a significant change. Scientists, however, assume that the virus continues to sufficiently find hosts.
With fewer infected people and a lower probability of infection, at least the evolutionary pressure on the virus increases to have to spread more easily or better. This could apply if more and more people are vaccinated in the coming months.
More vaccinated people, more mutations?
Basically, however, complete vaccine resistance is quite rare. The immune system acts against invading viruses in several ways. So far, it has only been investigated how the so-called neutralizing antibodies react to the new variants after a vaccination, but not the equally important T-cell response of the immune system. It is also said to be stimulated by various vaccines. For vaccines this means: the broader the immune response , the more extensive and long-lasting its protective effect is likely to be.
More mutations in immune deficiencies?
Another hypothesis is that the virus acquires so-called escape mutations, especially in people with a weak immune system. These are mutations with which it escapes the immune system. People struggle with an infection for a long time, the viral load increases, and the immune system is too weak to fight the virus effectively. Escape mutations could subsequently become more dangerous to other people as well.
How widespread is the new variant?
Apparently more widespread than previously assumed, as data from the RKI show. However, the data from the RKI are not very extensive and until February 7th, the samples were only tested for mutations in suspected cases.
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