If state legislatures were to begin naming senators, the imbalance in the upper chamber would almost certainly grow. Republicans currently control 32 state legislatures (including the titularly nonpartisan single chamber in Nebraska) and Democrats have clear control in 12 states. In six other states, power is divided between the parties -- although the divisions are complicated and potentially in flux because of shifting coalitions and special elections to fill vacancies.
Let's focus on the 32 legislatures where Republicans have control: If Republicans were to maintain their current advantage, and if they were empowered to replace all sitting Democratic senators at the end of their current terms, they could shape a Senate with at least 64 Republican members. Democrats who currently represent traditional swing states, such as Michigan's Debbie Stabenow, Missouri's Claire McCaskill, New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, and Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin are just some of the roughly 20 Democrats who would be vulnerable to replacement not by the voters but by the politicians. A handful of Republican, such as Nevada's Dean Heller, might also be vulnerable. But that prospect of a 64-36 split in the Senate is genuine, and it is hardly unreasonable to suggest the possibility of a 67-33 split that would allow for one-party approval of a constitutional amendment.
That's just a rough measure of the changes that could occur. Legislatures controlled by right-wing Republicans could reject relatively moderate Republicans. Legislatures controlled by Republicans or Democrats could reject independents such as Sanders and King. And campaign contributors such as the Koch brothers and their network of right-wing billionaires, which already has tremendous influence in statehouses, could actually get more senators who are to their liking.
Overturning the 17th Amendment would not be easy. For one thing, there is no evidence that Americans favor the change. But as Republican legislators move closer to the numbers they need to demand a "convention of the states" to enact a "Balanced Budget Amendment" that would constrain the federal government by effectively dictating budgeting priorities, it is wise to be wary of those who seek to constrain democracy itself.
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