As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko recently stated, "We [Russia] are making clear that we are ready to talk about switching over from a military or a military-technical scenario to a political process" that will strengthen the security of all parties involved. "If that doesn't work out," Grushko added, "we signaled to them [the U.S. and NATO] that will also move over to creating counter threats, but it will then be too late to ask us why we made these decisions and why we deployed these systems."
Grushko appeared to be referencing the U.S. decision to deploy a new generation of hypersonic intermediate-range missiles known as "Dark Eagle" onto German soil sometime next year. Implicit in Grushko's comments are the notion that a) Russia has a military response, most probably hypersonic intermediate-range missiles of its own, in mind, and these systems are ready for immediate deployment.
In other words, there will be no period of gradual transition, only instant cause-and-effect consequence. Europe, Grushko said, must think about the real prospect of turning their continent into a field of military confrontation like that which existed at the height of the Cold War.
'A Serious Threat'
Drawn out negotiations are not in Russia's interests, only short-term outcomes, either produced through what would amount to the unlikely diplomatic capitulation on the part of the U.S. and NATO or compelled by Russia through force of arms. A lengthy period of negotiations would allow, for example, NATO and Ukraine to implement the ten major military exercises that are currently planned for 2022, exercises which Russia believes only encourage Ukrainian anti-Russian belligerency.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov opined that the planned drills are little more than a cover for Ukraine to attempt to resolve its internal problem by using force. Russian military experts, like Konstantin Sivkov, agree. "The drills that Ukraine is conducting with NATO are a serious threat," Sivkov told the Russian newspaper Izvestia, "since they are directed at working on conducting a war against Russia. Additionally, they may serve as a cover for the deployment of a force grouping. Their arrival may end up with them not leaving."
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov likewise has made it clear that any effort by NATO to legitimize its interest in Ukraine, or further Ukraine's interest in joining NATO, was a non-starter for Russia. "When Mr. [NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg says loudly and rather arrogantly that nobody is in the position to violate the principle of the Washington treaty [NATO treaty]," Lavrov told the press recently, "which keeps the door open to any potential aspirant eager to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, he should remember that we are not a participant in that organization, that we are not signatory to that treaty, but that we are signatories to a broader regional Euro-Atlantic document, which contains the principle of the indivisibility of security."
Russian Red Lines
Russia will not yield on the issue of INF systems being deployed to Europe, NATO force deployments near the Russian border, or Ukrainian membership in NATO. So why present the draft treaties in the first place? Because Russia is positioning itself for a post-war reality where it will need to demonstrate to the rest of the world why it had no options other that direct military intervention in Ukraine. There should be no doubt that if and when Russia decides to move militarily on Ukraine, it will be a one-sided fight the likes of which have not been seen since Desert Storm in 1991, when a U.S.-led coalition rolled over Iraq. Ukraine will be destroyed as a modern nation state. This is a statement of fact.
The dire consequences that President Joe Biden, NATO, the EU, and the G-7 have promised in retaliation for any Russian military action against Ukraine are illusory no nation can survive the inevitable blow-back that will accrue if such measures are enacted, especially against Russian energy. Russia, simply put, can survive being disconnected from SWIFT (the international system of communication protocols that link banks) that either - but neither Europe nor the United States can survive without Russian energy.
Therefore, Russia has presented NATO and the U.S. with draft treaties, ready for signature. The outcome, from the Russian perspective, is a fait accompli; it is up to the U.S. and NATO to determine the mechanism of their defeat, either diplomatic or, in the language of the Russians, "military-technical."
Russia is operating on its own timeline, one that seeks a rapid resolution to these issues. While Russia has agreed to direct talks with the U.S., and multilateral talks with NATO and the OSCE, these talks will not be allowed to drag on.
Should the U.S. not agree to the Russian demands outright (never going to happen) or a reasonable counterproposal (highly unlikely), and should the U.S. go forward with its plans to deploy the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile system to Europe (prompting a Russian response to deploy weapons systems of its own that place the totality of Europe under the immediate threat of annihilation), then the outcome is a foregone conclusion - Russia will destroy Ukraine militarily.
Welcome to 1983, the year of the Able Archer NATO exercises that nearly prompted a Russian nuclear response.
Moreover, Russia may very well deploy hypersonic weapons into the Caribbean, either in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, or a combination thereof, to counter the threat to Moscow posed by U.S. systems in Europe.
Welcome to 1962, the year of the Cuban Missile crisis, when the Soviet Union responded to U.S. nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey.
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