Election night and for a few days thereafter, I had referred CNN’s exit poll information for a clue on how things might turn out and I was continually surprised at how close the computed results were because the exit polls did not support the count. The exit polls showed Obama tied with Clinton for the women's vote at 46-46 with Edwards, Richardson and other receiving the other 8%. The exit polls showed Obama winning the male vote by approximately 53% to 39% (I am writing this from memory and you will see why below). Based on these exit polls, I concluded that the recount would give Obama a clear victory by about 5%.
Just a short time ago, the final numbers for New Mexico were released. According to the recount, Hillary Clinton won with a 1,709-vote margin over Obama, 73,105 to 71,396. I was shocked by this result. I went back to CNN and see that they have changed the amounts for the exit polls http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM . CNN now shows Hillary with an edge among women of 52% to 46% in the exit poll and Obama with an edge among men of 53% to 43%. How and why does the exit poll tally change a week after the election?
Nor does the fact that New Mexico’s contest was a caucus invalidate the results of exit polls. New Mexico’s contest is called a caucus but is conducted much more like a primary; see this document by the New Mexico state Democratic Party --> http://www.nmdemocrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1118155 meaning that exit polls are a valid way to determine how people voted.
Exit polls are an important tool in determining whether an election is conducted properly and without fraud. UN election monitoring agencies routinely use exit polls around the globe to determine if elections were fair. On the basis of exit polls alone the UN and the US have accused other countries and leaders of election fraud. I am not accusing anyone of anything, but these discrepancies cannot be allowed to stand without some clarification. Someone is going to have to explain why the exit polls were altered and what mistakes were made in either the exit polls or the actual vote. I’ve sent an email to CNN and will follow-up with an email to the New Mexico State Democratic Party that includes a link to this article. I will post any responses in an upcoming article.
