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Giving Tempo to the TWIST.

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What I like when trading is to have strong technical analysis entry point or a good fundamental analysis backing. If I have both I am ecstatic. Add to that a good timing and I am smiling all the way to the bank.

Executive Summary:

All these elements concur to the fact that the market crash will probably occur between Sept. 9th and Sept 17th.

As I told on my Facebook Page, Groups and Events it is strongly recommended not own any long term assets:

------------------> from September 09th, 2010 at 9:00 AM EST.

------------------> till September 17th, 2010 at 4:00 PM EST.


Long-Term Assets:

Long-term assets are anything you own which is not directed to your own day to day consumption: businesses, Stocks, debt instruments, real estate, and commodities including gold or silver.

The proceeds must be held either in cash or invested in short term treasuries (maturing in less than two years and held with the emitting treasuries. (With Treasury Direct for the US Dollar.)

No holding must be deposited with any bank.


Analysis:

Fundamental:

In order to have a useful fundamental analysis we need to have something original that the market is not aware of already we have my TWIST of the Yield Curve (The Yield Curve TWIST Omen) note that the slope of the yield curve is an interest rate risk premium:

But what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices. This is the reason that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.
But the essential issue here is one of insurance, with a relatively modest premium, against a potentially catastrophic, very low probability event.



What is exceptional here is that my fundamental interpretation of the TWIST of the Yield Curve is exactly opposite of that of both the Federal Reserve System and of the Market in general:

The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator


Recent Minimum Yield Curve and the Normal Yield Curve by Shalom Hamou


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Timing of the Crash

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I have an engineer diploma from Ecole Centrale de Lyon (France) and a MBA from Boston University. Since 1986 till 1994 I have worked as a broker dealer on the French Domestic Fixed interest market. Since the spring of 1994 I have worked on the (more...)
 

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No! Or is it?[[TWIST]]... by Shalom Hamou on Monday, Sep 6, 2010 at 8:13:01 AM
[[IR]]... by Shalom Hamou on Friday, Sep 10, 2010 at 11:44:02 AM