Labor Day brought the summer of 1929 to its conventional end on September 2. The next day the New York Stock Exchange had near record volume of 4,438,910 shares - The market was strong with what the press called a good undertone. On this very day, September 3, 1929 - as if by common consent - the great bull-market of the 1920s came to an end. In the days that followed, stock prices see-sawed under increasing volume as professional market veterans sought to unload.
The Quadruple
Witching Hour:
September Friday 17th from 4:00 PM EST
to 5:00 PM EST is Quadruple Witching Hour, which is prone to high
volatility.
Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur (in
Hebrew ר×ש ×©× ×××× ×פ×ר):
There is a say on Wall street: "Sell at Rosh
Hashana, buy at Kippur." well bad luck: this year Rosh Hashana
fall on September 9th, the day of that dismal 30
Years US Treasury Bonds auction and Yom Kippur fall on a Saturday
immediately after the Quadruple Witching Hour. It will be difficult to
buy on a Saturday, won't it?
This year Erev Yom Kippur, falls on
Sept 17th,
2010 or 9thof
Tishrei, 5771, 911!
Eid al-Fitr
(Arabic: عÙد اÙÙطر 'Īdu l-Fiá¹r")
The Eid (the sacrifice that marks the end of Ramadan) will fall
(approximately) on September 11th - 13th.
For us economists holidays are a way to coordinate the
economic activities of those who celebrate as well as those who don't.
(confer Christmas for Christians, Passover for Jews, Indian
marriage season,...)
Both Qu'ran and Torah forbid lending
with interest.
You might not believe these urban legends but your opinion or mine are
irrelevant to the stock market. What counts is what the average opinion
believes the average opinion will be. This is what you want to discover:
In one of the greatest investment markets in the world, namely, New York, the influence of speculation (in the above sense) is enormous. Even outside the field of finance, Americans are apt to be unduly interested in discovering what average opinion believes average opinion to be; and this national weakness finds its nemesis in the stock market.
Conclusion:
All these elements concur to the fact that the market crash will probably occur between Sept. 9th and Sept 17th.
As I told on my Facebook page, groups and events it is strongly recommended not own any long term assets:
------------------> from September 09th, 2010 at 9:00 AM EST.
------------------> till September 17th, 2010 at 4:00 PM EST.
Our day-by-day experiences with the effectiveness of flexible markets as they adjust to, and correct, imbalances can readily lead us to the conclusion that once markets are purged of rigidities, macroeconomic disturbances will become a historical relic.
However, the penchant of humans for quirky, often irrational, behaviour gets in the way of this conclusion. A discontinuity in valuation judgement, often the cause or consequence of a building and bursting of a bubble, can occasionally destabilize even the most liquid and flexible of markets.I do not have much to add on this issue except to reiterate our need to better understand it.
Long-Term Assets:
Long-term assets are anything you own which is not directed to your own day to day consumption: businesses, Stocks, debt instruments, real estate, and commodities including gold or silver.
