Executive Summary:
All these elements concur to the fact that the market crash will probably occur between Sept. 9th and Sept 17th.
As I told on my Facebook Page, Groups and Events it is strongly recommended not own any long term assets:
------------------> till September 17th, 2010 at 4:00 PM EST.
Long-Term Assets:
The proceeds must be held either in cash or invested in short term treasuries (maturing in less than two years and held with the emitting treasuries. (With Treasury Direct for the US Dollar.)
No holding must be deposited with any bank.
Analysis:
Fundamental:
In order to
have a useful
fundamental analysis
we need to
have something original
that the market
is not aware
of already we
have my TWIST
of the Yield
Curve (The
Yield Curve TWIST Omen) note that the slope of the yield
curve is an interest rate risk premium:
But what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices. This is the reason that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.
But the essential issue here is one of insurance, with a relatively modest premium, against a potentially catastrophic, very low probability event.
What is exceptional here is that my fundamental interpretation of the TWIST of the Yield Curve is exactly opposite of that of both the Federal Reserve System and of the Market in general:
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