By Steven Hill and Rob Richie
Many pundits and activists have finally figured out what political
insiders always knew: our presidential election is not a national election
at all. The battle for chief executive will be fought in 15 battleground
states, none either solidly Republican red or Democratic blue, each fought
as individual contests that will be too close to call. This political
geography presents important lessons for partisans and reformers alike.
In a likely replay of the 2000 election, the battleground states are
Florida (of course), Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota,
Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico,
Oregon, Washington and Arizona. Some add Louisiana, Tennessee and Nevada,
making 18 states.
These states' concerns will drive much of the campaign debate. Those in
the Midwest's rust belt have been hit hard by job losses, particularly in
well-paying manufacturing jobs, making states like Ohio competitive. More
Latino voters in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada create dilemmas for
Republicans on issues like immigration. With the prominence of Florida and
its senior citizens, we'll hear a lot about Medicare and Social Security.
And don't expect John Kerry to highlight gun control or other pet liberal
issues when the almighty swing voters in battleground states mostly oppose
them.
Key issues of concern to those in other states -- even large states like
Texas, New York, Illinois and California -- will get short shrift because
they are not in play. Just as in our largely non-competitive congressional
races, most Americans effectively will be on the political sidelines.
But that doesn't mean those voters can't be involved in certain ways. They
can make sure friends and relatives in the battleground states are
registered to vote. They can hold house parties to raise campaign cash for
the close states. Some might even be able to travel to a nearby
battleground state and volunteer.
Most immediately, voters everywhere can highlight the need for fair
elections. With the two sides so close, we could be looking at another
"Florida" happening in any number of battleground states,
perhaps in several of them. The political geography of battleground states
allows the presidential candidates to target not only their resources and
campaigning - but also their attempts to steal the election. Changing the
results in one battleground state, particularly a large state like Ohio or
Pennsylvania, will make a difference in the outcome.
So advocates of fair elections similarly must target our efforts to lessen
the chance of another Florida happening. That means working in the 15
battleground states with civic groups like People for the American Way,
the League of Women Voters and Advancement Project to:
* Establish high-profile 1-800 numbers where voters can report incidents
of fraud or disenfranchisement, with "hot spot" legal teams
ready to be
dispatched to problem areas.
* Ensure voter registration lists are handled fairly, unlike in Florida
where tens of thousands of likely Democratic voters were mistakenly tagged
as ex-felons and removed.
* Educate voters and pollworkers that voters now have a federal right to
cast a "provisional ballot" if they barred from voting because
aren't on
the voter list in their precinct. Election officials must research each
provisional ballot and either validate or deny it before certifying any
winners. This new right won't be much use if barred voters don't know to
ask for a provisional ballot, or precinct poll workers aren't trained to
handle them.
* Demand greater public scrutiny of both old and new voting equipment,
ensuring that antiquated punchcards and more modern optical scan
machines and "touchscreens" count voters' ballots as intended.
* Protect the rights of overseas voters, both civilians and those in the
military, by sending them ballots in a timely manner.
It would be wise to take precautions immediately, before it's too late, to
avoid any more Katherine Harris hometown jobs. In 2000, Harris acted
as both Florida's Secretary of State in charge of elections and as
chairwoman of George Bush's campaign in Florida. That kind of conflict
of interest should be a big red flag.
Another red flag was raised when staunch Republican Walden O'Dell, CEO of
voting equipment manufacturer Diebold, said in a private fund-raising
letter "we are going to deliver Ohio's electoral votes to President
Bush." Did he mean by fraudulent means? Many Ohio counties use
Diebold's computerized touchscreens to count their ballots. Fair elections
advocates should demand greater scrutiny of that equipment, including
examination of the software code and witnessing the "logic and
accuracy" tests that are performed before and after Ohio's election
to certify the reliability of the equipment.
Longer term, we need to challenge how the Electoral College marginalizes
most voters because they live in noncompetitive states. We should push
states to require majority winners through instant runoff voting, and
debate ideas like an Election Day holiday and universal voter
registration. But this year it all comes down to the battleground states.
The Florida debacle pretty much revealed the template for the types of
goof ups, manipulations and fraud that must be avoided in 2004. We must
organize in the 15 battleground states to ensure that, this time, all
votes are counted and all votes count. The stakes for our country couldn't
be higher.
[Steven Hill is senior analyst for the Center for Voting and Democracy
www.fairvote.org and author of
"Fixing Elections: The Failure of America's Winner Take All
Politics" (www.FixingElections.com). Rob Richie is the Center's
executive director. Readers may write to them at: The Center for Voting
& Democracy, 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610, Takoma Park, MD 20912, or
info@fairvote.org .]
