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Giuliani – A More than Fatally Flawed Potential GOP 2008 Presidential Nominee

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Twelve days ago, I published an article examining John McCain as one of the two current frontrunners for the GOP Presidential nomination, http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_060514_john_mccain__96_rememb.htm .. Future articles will cover McCain in much greater depth but we can already see that the challenges facing McCain en route to the possible capture of the GOP nomination make it unlikely that a candidate McCain that would emerge would remain as widely appealing to the general electorate. If anything, Giuliani has all these problems and more regarding ideology and has a mountain of personal baggage to boot. Examining the current platform of the GOP alongside Giuliani's more than demonstrated personal beliefs, it is hard to imagine reconciling the two.

Social and Religious Conservative GOP organizations like the Republican National Coalition for Life, http://www.rnclife.org/ , are already taking pot shots at Giuliani. Their article "2008 Looms Ahead - Will Pro-Life Conservatives Have a Horse in the Race?" http://www.rnclife.org/faxnotes/2006/mar06/06-03-31.html talks about "the fact that he [Giuliani] is out in left field on social issues should not be overlooked. It should not be overlooked because Rudy Giuliani just may run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008." It goes on to link photos of Giuliani in drag and to point out that Giuliani is a supporter of Gay rights and of the HBO show Queer as Folk.

The National Rifle Association and its lobbying and campaign arms already maintain a list of articles cataloguing Giuliani's strong anti-gun record. Among them is this July 12, 2000 speech by Attorney General of Alabama Bill Pryor, "Extortion Parading As Law: The War On Guns" that pillories a host of politicians including Giuliani for having "imposed tight gun control laws" and engaging "in a war on guns" http://www.nraila.org/news/read/speeches.aspx?id=10 . This cannot be underestimated. The NRA's campaigning efforts is a big reason that the GOP continue to do well in southern border states like Tennessee, the Virginias, North and South Carolina among other states. Gun ownership and gun rights tend to be important to voters in these states and the NRA takes full advantage of this. Talk to people in these states in the months before a major election and due to NRA campaign literature and advertisements, they know the groups interpretation of each relevant candidates position on gun rights and gun control. I frequently make the argument that without the NRA's vigorous opposition to Gore in election 2000, Gore wins his home state of Tennessee easily and thus the election making the Florida election recount mess moot. Winning New York, if it comes to that, will not help Giuliani if NRA supporters vote against him or stay home in the Southern Border states.

A potential candidate Giuliani also has several embarrassing scandals with which to contend. A GOP establishment and electorate that pilloried President Clinton for marital indiscretions would have to embrace a Giuliani who moved out of the Mayoral mansion he shared with his estranged wife and moved in with his girlfriend for the last few years he was mayor. Giuliani would also have to explain how he made Bernard Kerik his police commissioner and then recommended he replace Tom Ridge as Homeland Security Secretary. As shown in this ABC News article, http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=local&id=4208115 it is hard to understand with so many questions and potential issues how Kerik made it past the vetting process to become NYC police commissioner and then made it to the short list for Homeland Security Secretary. Giuliani is completely responsible for one and partially responsible for the other.

How do Republicans feel about Giuliani? As with many other questions like this, I check the pulse of one segment of the Republican electorate over at Free Republic, where a recent thread suggested Giuliani or McCain would be the nominee ( a few messages in the thread mention Jeb Bush as well) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1635512/posts and here are some comments:

To: Blackirish
If the RNC jams either down our throats, I will write in Mickey Mouse.

22 posted on 05/20/2006 11:43:37 AM PDT by HuntsvilleTxVeteran ("Remember the Alamo, Goliad and WACO, It is Time for a new San Jacinto")
To: Blackirish
Hey how about this: Neither! Had it with RINO's, especially in the White House!

20 posted on 05/20/2006 11:41:20 AM PDT by Bommer (Attention illegals: Why don't you do the jobs we can't do? Like fix your
To: Blackirish
I don't vote for candidate's that cheat on their mate. That lets all three out!!

30 posted on 05/20/2006 12:23:04 PM PDT by mariabush ("Over there, over there, We won't be back 'til it's over Over there.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies ]
To: Bommer
"Hey how about this: Neither! Had it with RINO's, especially in the White House"!

Count me in on this! The GOP will just have to self destruct without my complicity!

31 posted on 05/20/2006 12:26:43 PM PDT by SWAMPSNIPER (LET ME DIE ON MY FEET, IN MY SWAMP)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies ]

To be fair, there were also several messages in this thread praising Giuliani's virtues as a candidate but it is hard to imagine a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-hand gun control, scandal heavy Giuliani emerging as the GOP nominee for President. Should he flip flop on those issues, he would lose any credibility as the strong "This is what I believe and stand by it" leader he is currently credited for being. Should he emerge as the nominee, I do not see the NRA or social conservative groups rallying their respective bases around him and this would almost certainly prove fatal. Perhaps this is why out of the two we see Jerry Falwell reluctantly reaching out to John McCain. In either case, as a Democrat, it is becoming less and less daunting looking at either of these two GOP front runners as potential opponents in 2008. I like our chances against either one of them.
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A political blogger for the International Business Times, Steve Leser is a hot national political pundit. He has appeared on MSNBC's Coundown with Keith Olbermann, Comedy Central's Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Russia Today's (RT) Crosstalk with (more...)
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