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Hezbollah, Israel and Difficult U.S. Allies

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John E. Carey
President Putin has been relatively quiet since hosting President Bush at the G-8 Summit in Saint Petersburg July 18. During that summit, Bush told Putin that Russia's bid for entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) could not yet be endorsed by the US - a bitter pill for Bush's host to swallow.

Just a few days ago, Russia approved a draft agreement with Iran on cooperation in the tourist industry.The five-year agreement aims to promote tour groups and individual tourism to both countries by simplifying travel bureaucracy, to facilitate the arrangement of symposiums and exchange schemes for experts and journalists specializing in tourism issues, and to boost contacts between tour operators.

While tourism between Russia and Iran might seem insignificant, it shows the importance that Iran has to Russia. While the US wants to discuss Iran's nuclear program, Russia wants to strengthen tourism.But Russia's big gold mine with Iran is in supplying the technology Iran needs to grow and expand it's nuclear program and its oil industry.

To no one's surprise, Russia refused to endorse a proposal offered by John Bolton, US Ambassador to the UN, to sanction Iran for its nuclear power program.

Secretary of State Rice and the UN

What started as a call to normalcy and assurances that in Lebanon we were seeing "the birth pangs of a new Middle East," three weeks ago looked more like a forced abortion after 21 days.

A senior diplomat, who spoke to me only on the condition of anonymity said, "This is getting like a bad Tom Clancy novel.""There is a sense now that Secretary of State Rice was taken aback, taken by surprise by the Israeli resolve," he said.

Secretary Rice has returned from the Middle East without a deal on anything with anyone after canceling a Monday trip to Beirut. She hopes to push forward a UN resolution to end the war in Lebanon.

But a critical element of the cease fire plan would have to be the assembly of a peacekeeping force: and the Secretary of State has nothing but a pile of rejections messengers have slipped under her door in the dark of night. France, Russia and nearly every NATO and Arab nation publicly stated a desire not to participate. The US and UK also sent out assurances that they should not be expected to participate.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan consequently gained approval for a one month extension for Unifil. Apparently the UN peacekeepers led by Ghana and others will stand by to return to observation and peacekeeping duties when the smoke clears in Lebanon. If the smoke clears in Lebanon.

What to Look For

In the weeks ahead, we can anticipate continued Israeli military action in Lebanon until such time that Isreal believes that Hezbollah's missile assets have been destroyed and Hezbollah itself is neutralized or seriously disrupted.

Secretary of State Rice hopes to obtain a favorable cease fire agreement in the UN followed by initiation of sustained talks on regional peace, security and difference resolution.

http://peace-and-freedom.blogspot.com/

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John E. Carey is the former president of International Defense Consultants, Inc.
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