This analysis is not about who I support. Her win in California had more to do with early voting and the control they have over the process in California. The later trends were all pointing to an Obama victory in California as evidenced by Zogby's prediction of a double digit loss by Hillary. He was not completely wrong and we will never know the exit polls from the networks who could easily tell us what the exit polls were for those who voted yesterday.
The Clintons can muscle lots of Hispanic votes in California much like Daley did in Chicago in 1960. The Clinton's Hispanic leaders in California control much of the voting process in California. This is not true in any other state. Hillary won the Hispanics in California by a 2/1 ratio. Compare this result with what happened in Arizona and New Mexico where the ratio was much more balanced. Clearly New Mexico has the highest proportion of Hispanic voters in the country and the result was a virtual tie. The only other remaining primary with a high Hispanic population is in Texas where the Clintons will not get a 2/1 ratio of the Hispanic community. I suspect that in Texas the Hispanic vote will be no better than 50/50 especially since it is a Republican state.
Checking the other states that have yet to vote and the all important super delegates, it is unlikely that she will get the nomination given the momentum Obama has gained and the money advantage he has established. Indeed, it was reported today that Hillary had to loan $5M to her campaign. Furthermore, Bill Clintons negative impact on the African American community will probably hurt Hillary a lot in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Given all of the indicators above, there is no question in my mind that Obama will win. The media will not tell you this because they want to suck out all the campaign funds that are available. I assure you that they know this but they want us to believe this is still a horse race. It is over.
Sheldon Drobny was the co-founder of Nova M radio and Air America Radio. He has supported many philanthropic causes. Mr. Drobny specializes in business and tax matters and is admitted to practice before the U.S. Tax Court as a non-attorney. Less (more...