In Wisconsin --the first state to ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation --the Rovian gay-bashing amendment is doomed.
Wisconsin would become the first state to defeat a non-judicial anti-gay marriage initiative since the Republican party instigated its recent national campaign against gays and lesbians resulting in 18 states passing some version of amendments to their constitutions that ban gay marriage.
The contention that the Republican-launched DOMAs --proposed statues or constitutional amendments that double as get-out-the-wacko-vote efforts and policy preferences --are effective in getting Republicans elected has been widely discredited. [See, for example, Alan Abramowitz at "Donkey Rising " for the definitive knock down of the thesis that the 11 state gay marriage referenda were decisive in Bush 's 2004 electoral state wins.]
The Wisconsin Republican initiative is the culmination of a two-session legislative process [voted almost exclusively along party lines] to amend the state constitution by voter referendum this November.
The proposed amendment [section 13 of article XIII] would result in not only the explicit banning of gay marriage by the Wisconsin constitution, but would also mandate that a "legal status identical or substantially similar to that of marriage for unmarried individuals shall not be valid or recognized ... " That means, many legal scholars say, that the numerous domestic partner and civil union rights such as those enjoyed in Wisconsin municipalities like Madison would be in serious peril.
Electoral Numbers Spell a Defeat
Bear in mind that current polls (six months before the election) indicate that the coming campaign season portends highly-motivated Democratic voters and depressed Republican voters -- news about as welcome to Republican political operatives as living with a bleeding-out Ebola virus victim.
The electoral numbers and the generally tolerant culture in Wisconsin spell disaster for the amendment. Not that Wisconsin lacks for bigoted nut jobs who believe dinosaurs frolicked with Adam and Eve, that the devil watches our every act, and that gays will spend eternity suffering in hellfire.
But let 's check some data in the last off-year (non-presidential), Wisconsin election --2002.
Madison and Milwaukee Counties
In Madison, both the dailies (the progressive Capital Times and the Republican Wisconsin State Journal) have come out strongly against the anti-gay amendment this year. Madison vote totals can be expected to exceed 90 percent against the amendment.
Expecting that the Democratic/Green/Libertarian sympathizers will decisively vote against the anti-gay marriage amendment, in order for the amendment to pass in 2006, it would need a landslide in the rest of Wisconsin to offset Madison-dominated Dane and Milwaukee counties. [So strong is the sentiment in Dane County against the religious right that former Rep. Mark Neumann --a religious right champion --complained after losing a razor-close battle to Sen. Russ Feingold in 1998 that "one county, " Dane, cost him the election.]