In this article, I indulge in one of my favorite pastimes by taking a look into my proverbial crystal ball and predicting the future. Unlike my prediction about the unemployment rate a year from now, this prediction is not set in stone. Circumstances regarding this prediction can change. This is, however, how I see things 4-10 weeks from now if the trajectory regarding Health Care Reform doesn't change.In addition to givingthe reasons for failure, I explain what I think would have to happen to change this vision of the future.
The story of why President Obama's Health Care Reform efforts failed begins on the day after he was elected President. That day, both Democrats and Republicans began the process of demobilizing their campaign efforts. Like every four years, once election day passes, the political parties start closing down campaign offices, send out thank you emails, supporters stop phone banking and canvassing. Everyone disengages and begins to rest. Fighting for the election of a Presidential candidate is exhausting work and no one can keep up that pace forever.
Here is the main difference. Most Democrats, from the grassroots on up, are still demobilized and resting. Republicans, through the leadership of ten prominent think tanks, started remobilizing two months after election day. In January and February, through ten huge and well funded Republican think tanks, the GOP started remobilizing and raising money to fight Obama's initiatives. Similarly, industry groups like the health insurance lobby began mobilizing around this same time to start the fight against Obama's Health Care reform plans.
How do I know this? Well there are a few pieces of evidence and I will share one of them now. The Washington Post had an article out in July, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/health-care-reform/2009/07/health_care_continues_its_inte.html that said that from January through March, before the Health care debate even got started in earnest, the Republicans and Health Insurance Lobbyists were spending $1.4 million per day to defeat health care reform, and when the estimates come out for April through June and then for the time period we are in, the article goes on to say that number is going to be dwarfed. I've estimated that when all is said and done, Republicans, their think tanks and the Health Insurance Lobby will spend over $1 Billion dollars in their efforts to defeat Health Care Reform.