With just one day to go before the 2020 United States Presidential Elections the political stars have lined up for the Democratic Party and Joe Biden, the party's standard bearer. I'm are projecting based on BOTH national and state polling data that it definitely looks as a Democratic Party victory and that incumbent POTUS, Donald J. Trump will be a one-term president. Now, let me be clear Trump does have a path to 270 - the number of Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency, albeit a very narrow one. And, nobody must underestimate the power of incumbency. But even with that there is a VERY LIMITED PATH to 270 for Donald Trump and political book makers give him a 10 percent chance out of 100 of winning the election. They have given Joe Biden a 90 percent change to win, and so he's favored to become the next POTUS - even with all of the shenanigans and the Republican Party's voter suppression tactics.
The problem for the Republicans and Donald Trump is that their attacks against vote by mail and absentee voting backfired spectacularly and served to drive record voter turnout, as well as high numbers of early voting, closing out at nearly 100 million votes cast - BEFORE ELECTION DAY. And Trump's downplaying the COVID-19 Pandemic and its rampage across the United States that has claimed over 230,000 lives and infected close to 10 million Americans had very little effect outside of his base. In fact, the vast majority of Americans did not buy it forcing Trump to literally throw EVERYTHING at his Democratic challenger in the hope that something - anything - would stick. From his childish name-calling to outright lies and vapid rabblerousing Trump's 2016 political playbook was found severely wanting. And since he never sought to expand his base the reality of 2020 is that this narrow base cannot re-elect him.
I think that as the campaign progressed, Trump became acutely aware that he had to do something to win this election and that his base alone could not do the trick. As a result, the Republican Party drummed up all kinds of voter suppression tactics, and Trump fell back on his outmoded and backward fear-mongering and name calling - all of which did not work this time around. Now he's banking on muddying the waters on Election Day to cry foul and take the election results to the United States Supreme Court that he's effectively packed with a 6 to 3 conservative majority. In retrospect Trump and the GOP's reliance on the 2016 playbook was a monumental error since the incumbent president now has a record that could be picked apart. And his attempt to get a "third candidate" to syphon off votes from Joe Biden and/or confuse/split the Black vote did not pan out. Plus, Trump's incompetent and inefficient handling of the Coronavirus pandemic was hung like a millstone around his neck by a relentless Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. So much so that Trump himself complained about this at his rallies, proving the effectiveness of this campaign strategy.
Finally, Joe Biden performed better than Hillary Clinton in the key battleground states and his poll numbers have been consistent since August. And he does not have the high double-digit unfavorable numbers that Ms. Clinton had going into the final day before ED. He goes into the Election Day with a 10 percent poll advantage over Donald Trump, that's incredibly difficult to overcome in 20 hours. Also, at this same time in 2016 Hillary Clinton had a +4 percent advantage over Donald Trump - a statistical dead heat. While Trump's supporters turned out in sufficient numbers for him to win the election, Hillary Clinton underperformed when it came to Barack Obama's numbers, especially with the key Black vote. Nor could she energize the millennial vote that was also crucial to the Obama Coalition. By contrast, Joe Biden and the Democrats are energizing not only the Black vote, but YOUNGER VOTERS and FIRST TIME VOTERS. So, Biden is building (has built) a different vote coalition than his former boss - one that includes white college educated sub-urban women and seniors that will be key to his victory on November 3.
THE BLACK AND SENIOR VOTE. Joe Biden has chipped away at the senior vote, especially in places like Florida, because of COVID-19 and the Trump Administration's mishandling of it. Tuesday night I would look at how Trump and Biden perform in places like Broward, Miami and Dade counties in Florida because these three counties can literally determine who wins Florida. I've put this state in the Democratic Column (see below). And do not underestimate the Black turnout numbers on ED. Black voters are energized by two things - anger at social and racial injustices and events that directly impact their quality of life, like COVID-19. Moreover, the Black communities across America are historically late voters and like to cast their votes on Election Day. It's a kind of ritual with them so do not be surprised at a major, heavy Black voter turnout on November 3 - for Democrats.
SECRET TRUMP VOTERS?
Maybe in 2016. Definitely not 2020. First, millions of Americans - Democrats and Republicans - have already cast their votes. Today, the day before Election Day, the "undecided and independent" voter spread is just about 4 or 5 percent that's statistically irrelevant to the outcome. And, even if say, 50 million American votes on Election Day, that does not mean that Donald Trump and the Republicans will win them all given the Democratic leads in key swing and battleground states. Moreover, poll after poll, conducted in person and on the telephone failed to come up with any evidence of "secret or shy" Trump voters. Quite the contrary. Why does this persist as a political narrative in 2020? In 2016 thousands of undecided and independent voters broke for Trump very late and helped him to win the election. Many of the national polling were influenced erroneously by local skewered state polling that tends to be partisan, dubious at times and outright poor quality. It is safe to say that pollsters and political surveyors have learned quite a lot since 2016 and today's polls are far more scientific and accurate.
HERE ARE THE STATES WE PROJECT WILL GO FOR DEMOCRATS
1. Georgia
2. North Carolina
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