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Kazakhstan could become a central player in the next decade

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Mark Lansvin
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The recent elections in Kazakhstan have highlighted the nation's desire to raise itself from a regional to an international player. Citizens want more and now they are demanding more. If they have it their way, Kazakhstan could become a far more important country than it has been until now.

The vote was held on the third anniversary of Nursultan Nazarbayev's resignation as president, coinciding with a brief but dynamic campaign for positions in the newly restructured lower house of parliament. Nazarbayev, who had held power since Kazakhstan's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, had established significant influence in the country. After his resignation, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev succeeded him as president, and many anticipated that he would maintain Nazarbayev's authoritarian stance. In fact, Tokayev even renamed the capital, paying tribute to his predecessor by calling it Nur-Sultan.

This is in contrast to January 2022, when the nation's political terrain underwent a significant transformation following a series of violent events. What began as regional demonstrations in response to a fuel price increase escalated into nationwide protests, with the commercial hub of Almaty being a notable epicenter. These demonstrations became overtly political as participants chanted "Old man out!" in reference to Nazarbayev. Tragically, over 220 people, primarily protesters, lost their lives as law enforcement violently quashed the uprisings.

Today, citizens in Kazakhstan are concerned about a range of issues that vary from political to economic and social. One of the main concerns is corruption, which had been an ongoing problem in the country. Kazakhstan has a reputation for having a high level of corruption in public administration, law enforcement, and the judiciary, and citizens are concerned about the impact of this on their daily lives.

Another major concern for citizens is the economy. Kazakhstan is a resource-rich country, but many people feel that the benefits of the country's natural wealth have not been distributed fairly. High levels of inequality, unemployment, and poverty are among the key economic issues that citizens are worried about.

In addition, citizens are concerned about political freedom and human rights. Kazakhstan is known for its restrictive laws on freedom of speech, assembly, and association, which have led to the imprisonment of journalists, activists, and opposition figures. The lack of political freedom and the limited ability of citizens to hold their government accountable are significant concerns for many people.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) noted that some level of corruption continues to exist.

"While voting was organized in a smooth manner overall, significant procedural irregularities were observed during counting and tabulation and important safeguards were often disregarded, undermining the transparency of the process," the OSCE wrote in its post-election assessment. "Observers consistently noted discrepancies between the number of voters casting their ballots and the officially reported preliminary turnout figures."

Other issues that citizens are worried about include healthcare, education, and environmental protection. Kazakhstan has made progress in these areas in recent years, but many people feel that more needs to be done to improve access to quality healthcare and education and to address environmental challenges such as air pollution and the impact of extractive industries on the environment.

It is clear that citizens in Kazakhstan are concerned about a wide range of issues that affect their daily lives and the future of their country. While some progress has been made in addressing these concerns, many challenges remain, and citizens will continue to push for change and reform.

The real question on everyone's mind of course is how these elections will affect the country moving forward. Kazakhstan has real potential to move beyond its past and cross into the next decade as a power player in the international arena. To achieve this, Kazakhstan must prioritize several areas, including economic development, geopolitical positioning, and strategic alliances.

One way that Kazakhstan could establish itself as an economic powerhouse is by leveraging its abundant natural resources, such as oil, natural gas, and minerals. By investing in modernizing its infrastructure and diversifying its economy beyond these resources, Kazakhstan could attract foreign investment and create new industries, thus establishing itself as a regional economic hub. Additionally, by joining international economic organizations, such as the World Trade Organization, Kazakhstan could benefit from increased trade and access to global markets.

In terms of geopolitical positioning, Kazakhstan's central location between Europe and Asia makes it a crucial link in the region's transportation and communication networks. As such, Kazakhstan can play a crucial role in facilitating trade and diplomacy between these regions. Furthermore, Kazakhstan has historically maintained good relations with its neighbors, and its efforts to foster regional stability and cooperation could help to enhance its position in the international arena.

Strategic alliances with other countries could bolster Kazakhstan's global influence. By forging closer ties with major players such as China and Russia, Kazakhstan could benefit from their economic and political clout, while also providing a bridge for these countries to connect with other Central Asian nations. In addition, Kazakhstan could pursue alliances with Western nations to diversify its partnerships and further expand its influence in global affairs.

By prioritizing economic development, strategic alliances, and regional stability, Kazakhstan has the potential to emerge over the next decade as a central player on an international level and position itself as an important country in numerous industries.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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