How will US Jerusalem move affect Israel's far right?

From AlJazeera

Trump's recognition this week of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, overturning seven decades of US policy in the region and effectively ending hopes of a two-state solution, has provoked dire warnings.

But the focus by commentators on Palestinian reactions, rather than the effect on the Israeli public and leadership, might have underestimated the longer-term fallout from Trump's move, analysts say.

Predictions have included the threat of renewed violence -- even an uprising - from Palestinians; the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the Palestinians' government-in-waiting, and its diplomatic strategy for two states; and the demise of Washington's claim to be serving as a credible peacemaker.

But according to analysts, more far-reaching -- and disruptive -- undercurrents will likely be set in motion by Trump's decision.

Few have factored in the likely effect of Trump's new Jerusalem policy on the Israeli public, which has been shifting steadily to the right for most of the past two decades. The city and its contested holy sites have gained an increasingly powerful religious and national symbolism for many Israeli Jews.

The fear is that Trump's effective rubber-stamping of the right's political goals in Jerusalem will further radicalize both sides of the divide -- and accelerate processes that have been turning a long-standing national conflict into a more openly religious one.

"Tipping point"

"We may remember this date as the tipping point, as the moment when a new consensus emerged in Israel behind the idea of total Jewish supremacy," journalist David Sheen, an expert on Israel's far-right movements, told Al Jazeera.

Similar concerns were expressed by Yousef Jabareen, a Palestinian member of Israel's parliament.

"We can expect to see a move rightwards across Israeli society," he told Al Jazeera. "The centre-left parties were already tacking much closer to the right. They will now want to align themselves with Trump's position. Meanwhile, the right will be encouraged to move to the extreme right."

Both noted that Avi Gabbay -- the recently elected leader of the Zionist Union, the official opposition and the party that was once the backbone of the Israeli peace camp -- had begun espousing positions little different from those of right-wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Last week, Gabbay backed Trump's announcement, saying that recognition of Jerusalem was more important than a peace deal with the Palestinians.

Sheen said that traditionally, the centre-left had been restrained in its political positions by concerns about alienating the United States: "Netanyahu has shown that he can bring the US round to his way of thinking by staying the course. In many Israelis' eyes, he has now been proved right. The centrists may decide it is time to come onboard. Allying with the Republican right and the Christian evangelicals in the US may now look like a much safer bet."

The possible effects of Trump's announcement on Israelis have been largely overlooked, even though previous turning points in the conflict have consistently resulted in dramatic lurches rightwards by the Israeli public.

Given Israel's power over the Palestinians, these changes have played a decisive role in leading to the current impasse between Israel and the Palestinians, analysts note.

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