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Emerging Scenarios in Af-Pak-India Relations

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Message Muhammad Irfan

Af-Pak War
Af-Pak War
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The location of Pakistan is a territorial landscape between India and Afghanistan, strategically most renowned countries in the chess game of the global politics. This location not only highlights the Pakistani strategic importance but also urges India to forge cordial relations with every sitting regime in Kabul.

This approach leads towards the misperceived developments in the region which simultaneously result in the absence of tranquil and stable milieu. However, it is rationally required to think on the emerging scenarios in the wake of the present Indian presence in the decision making circles of Kabul. Accordingly, it is obvious to observe some diversified occurrences due to the said fact in the days to come.

First, India would undertake the sneaky involvement in Afghanistan. It would ensure to congeal its bastion in Kabul and will attempt to win over the wits and minds of the Kabul government. It will also make sure to remove the expected hindrances from the opposite side.

Second, with vigorous bastion in Afghanistan, it would make possible to garner the terrorist organizations in Baluchistan in order to exacerbate the Pakistani Baloch-based security situation.

It recently appeared in Geneva to propagate free Baluchistan. Thus, it is evident that the surreptitious pathways against Baluchistan based stability will likely increase.

Third, the CPEC is considered as a fate-changer in Pakistani economic sphere. Ultimately, this opportunity will make Pakistan economically robust which is perceived by India as a fork in their ways to hegemonies the region.

For that reason, Afghanistan based encampment of Indian secret services would increase to disrupt CPEC by igniting the suburban areas from Gwadar up to Khunjarab.

Fourth, India would try to realize its cold start like planes to cripple Pakistani deterrent. Accordingly, it may undertake a surgical option. It may also instigate a third party such as its strategic partners to preempt for defusing Pakistani deterrence capabilities.

Fifth, New Delhi with likeminded powers may undergo a plan to use all technical means to sabotage Pakistani ballistic missiles capabilities.

These options will be employed to undermine Pakistan's capabilities so that the secret agendas on the Western borders may freely be accomplished. Sixth, there may be heinous involvement in making Pakistan internally derailed. PTI vs PMLN are a spectrum which can be utilized as a policy to polarize the nation. Pakistan's ethnic and sectarian divergence can also be exploited.

Under the scenario of the internal polarization, the final round of confrontation may be ushered. Subsequently, the Western and eastern frontiers might be depicting as the venue of limited but surgical expeditions from Indian side.

Summary, Afghanistan as Indian bastion is considered as an absolute vulnerability in Pakistani national security. On the other hand, Indian decision-making junta is using the threatening language and reiterating the options of surgical strikes against secret targets in Pakistan. That is why Pakistani institutions are sensitive and are in exigency situation in order to cope with the likely threats.

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Muhammad Irfan has authored many books. He is an internationally recognized scholar. He has presented his papers in national and international conferences. He is also a freelance journalist and contributes to both national and international (more...)

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