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-- attacks on western Gulf oil production, processing and transportation facilities - essentially soft targets despite greater security; and
-- support for Iraq and Afghanistan resistance fighters.
The Iranian public and Arab street would be supportive, perceiving Israel as a US client state, and Washington a regional menace.
"Perhaps the most important aspect of an Israel(i) attack (is) that it would almost certainly be the beginning of a long-term process of regular air strikes to further prevent the development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems," Israel and Washington believing once initiated, "it could not easily stop." Over time, Iran would respond accordingly, embroiling the entire region in conflict with catastrophic longer-term consequences.
At the same time, expect the unexpected, perhaps involving Lebanon, Syria, and regional state responses, depending on a protracted conflict's instability - not preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons; in fact, likely encouraging it.
These "dangerous consequences (clearly) militate against military action," leaving two alternative paths:
-- more robust diplomacy for peace and the prospect of a nuclear-free Middle East; and/or
-- accept an eventual nuclearized Iran, using it to start "a process of balanced regional denuclearisation," knowing the risks - an unwilling Israel and the possibility it will encourage regional proliferation, a certainty if Israel and/or Washington attacks Iran.
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