"" the United States has been saying for some time that it's a diplomatic negotiation that is required to bring this conflict in Ukraine to an end, that this is not something that's going to be solved or resolved militarily, but rather through diplomatic negotiations. So we certainly are encouraging and supportive of ongoing efforts to try to find a peaceful diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine". [But] we need serious engagement from the Russians and the separatists, the likes of which we've not seen before".
"
the President is going to make a decision [on weapons
to Ukraine] that he believes is in the broader national security interests
of the United States". But certainly the President takes very seriously the
views of our allies and is going to consult very closely as we evaluate any
needed strategic changes ahead".
[But] this conflict was not going to rise to the level of a military
confrontation between the United States and Russia. The President has
been very clear about that. So there are things that we are going to
continue to avoid.
But one of the concerns that we have about providing military assistance is it
does contain the possibility of actually expanding bloodshed, and that's
actually what we're trying to avoid. The whole reason that we are trying to
encourage both sides to sit down and hammer out a diplomatic agreement is to
end the bloodshed and end the escalating conflict in that country.
The press secretary made no effort to offer a balanced analysis of the Minsk Agreement, blaming the separatist Republics and Russia for virtually all the problems. He did allow that Ukraine had not lived up to all its commitments under the agreement.
Who actually speaks for the United States?
The same day the White House offered this view, NATO ministers in Brussels adopted a plan to ring Russia's European perimeter with a network of command centers and rapid reaction forces. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, this plan is NATO's biggest reinforcement of collective defense since the end of the Cold War. He added that the first six multinational command and control units would be established immediately in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Estonia and Latvia border on Russia. Poland and Romania border on Ukraine.
The Secretary of State is carrying on as if he believes that this might be his legacy moment. He's acting as if he's thinking: Hillary Clinton led the charge on Libya and made magnificent regional chaos there, so why shouldn't I be able to top that, and make a mess of Ukraine, and possibly create global chaos?
But what if "Russian aggression" is real? As matters stand now, U.S. policy aggression for two decades has serves as a self-fulfilling prophecy that creates "aggression" in response. What would happen if the U.S. especially, and the West in general, sent a clear signal that western aggression was over? How long would it take for Russia (or China) to trust that as reality? And would that persuade the Russians to relax what we now call their aggression? (We don't hear much about "Chinese aggression" these days, but chances are that Kerry or Biden or someone already has that speech written.)
The course the U.S. has been on since 1990 has no good ending, unless one assumes that the Russians (or the Chinese) will fold under pressure. That seems unlikely. Nor does the result seem worth the risk. But also unlikely is a U.S. course change as long as we remain enamored of our own exceptional face in the magic mirror that keeps telling us we're indispensible and can do no wrong. In Ukraine, today, probably the most dispensible nation is the U.S.
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