This piece was reprinted by OpEd News with permission or license. It may not be reproduced in any form without permission or license from the source.
Stratfor's George Friedman speculated on what's ahead, saying:
"Except for Mubarak, the army remains in charge, (and) the fundamental warp and woof of Egypt is intact. We've not had a dramatic sea change....I don't know what (generals mean by) democracy." Anything ahead is possible, but rhetoric doesn't explain. "Pay very little attention to (what's being said) at this point. Even as we saw (earlier), we didn't have to pay attention to what Mubarak said. So let's take a look at the objective situation. Let's forget all the statements and so on."
Egypt's army is in full control. It's the nation's "central institution" and its most powerful. "Do I expect an election in which a dramatic change takes place in who (gets) elected? I suspect not, but (then) I'm not even sure when elections" are coming. All that's clear is that generals are in charge. They'll pretty much do what they want as they've always done.
In a follow-up commentary, Friedman said post-Mubarak, "the military regime in which he served has dramatically increased its power. This isn't compatible with democratic reform."
At this point, we don't know what's ahead. However, "(p)ower rests with the regime, not with the crowds. In our view, the crowds never had nearly as much power as many have claimed." Dispersed, for sure they don't, and once energy ebbs, reenergizing it isn't easy, especially if military forces abandon friendliness for harsh crackdowns.
What happened so far wasn't a revolution. The military-controlled regime remains in tact, solidified by coup d'etat rule. Only Mubarak's gone. A powerful junta remains. It's run Egypt for decades. It's hard imagining they'll stop in six month, perhaps ever unless real revolutionary change forces them. So far, it's nowhere in sight, but possibly could emerge. As Friedman explains:
"N)othing much has really happened in Egypt. It doesn't mean that it won't, but is hasn't yet. An 82-year-old man (was deposed), and his son will not be president. The constitution and parliament are gone and a military junta is in charge. The rest is speculation." Indeed so, especially against raw military power if unleashed.
A Final Comment
Next Page 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
2
1
1
