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Life Arts    H2'ed 1/30/10

Why Pig Flu Didn't Fly: the full story

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Yet the WHO stands by its decision to label H1N1 a pandemic, citing geographic spread and the virus' novelty as its primary reasons. Moving ahead, Fukuda said his organization "will definitely consider whether we can define things better." But some participants in Tuesday's meeting wondered what the WHO is waiting for, since complaints have long poured in from all sides.

The Associated Press reported on May 19, 2009, that China, Britain, Japan and other countries had urged WHO to "be very cautious about declaring the arrival of a swine flu pandemic, fearing that a premature announcement could cause worldwide panic and confusion."

Critics say what was needed was not a frightful label, but hard scientific data to show how many people were getting swine flu.

"Rational scientific independent advice should be supreme, but there was an imperative behind this which was a financial one," said Paul Flynn, a parliamentary representative in the UK who spoke at the Council of Europe's hearing.

Unfortunately, good data on H1N1 does not exist, not even for a retrospective review. On July 10, the WHO quit tracking cases of infection and told governments they should stop testing for individual cases, ostensibly because the speed of H1N1's spread had already been confirmed.

Following that advice, in mid-2009, the CDC decided laboratory tests to confirm whether patients had H1N1 were no longer necessary, and advised doctors to save resources and stop conducting them. A CBS news investigation found "overwhelming" evidence that despite the inflammatory estimations of the CDC, very few flu cases being reported were of the H1N1 strain, as little as three percent in California.

In response to questions about the CBS story, CDC media spokesman Jeff Dimond said: "We, as a matter of policy, do not comment on stories by other publications."

As of July 24, the CDC has used a statistical multiplier to come up with its total count of H1N1 cases meaning it inflates confirmed cases using estimates about the number of infected who people never go to the doctor or are never tested during visits. In mid-December, using this model, CDC approximated that as many as 80 million, or some 1 in 4 Americans had gotten swine flu. But with no flu-strain tests to cross-check, virtually anything that looks like a bad cold could end up in that total.

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Niko Kyriakou is a freelance journalist living in northern California.
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Why Pig Flu Didn't Fly: the full story

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