7 - Can you assess the financial and economical damages incurred by our two countries due to this ordeal?
It's hard for me to assess the full financial and economic consequences of this sorry episode. If the hostage crisis had been resolved earlier and President Carter had been reelected, the United States might well have moved forward on addressing its energy dependence and on seeking a lasting peace in the Middle East. The United States also probably would not have shifted so dramatically to the right and would not have invested so heavily in its military.
Assuming Carter's second term made real progress on his key goals, the world might look very different today. The United States would not be so dependent on Middle East oil, so it might have reduced its military presence there. A peace settlement between Israelis and Palestinians might have lessened tensions in the region. Al-Qaeda might never have emerged. The 9/11 attacks might never have happened. Literally trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives might have been saved.
As for Iran, a quick resolution of the hostage crisis might have forestalled war with Iraq. One document I discovered indicates that Saudi Arabian leaders told Saddam Hussein in summer 1980 that he had a U.S. "green light" to invade Iran. Though Carter denies giving such a "green light," the hostage crisis certainly would have made the Saudi assertion more plausible to Saddam Hussein than if the crisis had been resolved promptly.
But it is inherently difficult to project an alternative course of history, since there are so many variables. Perhaps it should suffice to say that the mess that the world finds itself in today might be far less severe if the various parties had done the right things back in 1980.
I hope these answers help in your project.
Robert Parry, e-mailed on Oct. 22, 2010
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