My theory is that Bush and Cheney's rationale for Iraq was much grander, and much more nefarious, than any of the reasons ever publicly given to justify the invasion. If they had been able to pull it off, they could have gained control of a significant portion of the world's oil supply; broken OPEC; paid back Saddam Hussein for trying to assassinate Bush-41 in Kuwait in 1993 and looked heroic to the world for deposing a tyrant; paid for the war itself; mitigated the adverse effects of the Bush tax cuts on the budget surplus; reduced the national debt and the trade deficit; provided huge windfall profits for rich friends and political cronies in the construction, oilfield services, and oil refining industries; and made it all look free.
That would have been quite a plan. Here is how it might have worked.
In the months after the invasion, I heard many people say with a knowing weariness, "It's about oil." They didn't say what it was about oil, just, "it's about oil."
They are probably right, "it's about oil." But as I see it, it was not about having oil, it was about using oil as the currency to achieve a number of political, commercial, and personal objectives. September 11 provided a convenient excuse to invade Iraq, but had 9/11 not happened, there still would have been an Iraq war. Of that much I am certain.
Bush's motives, I think, were mainly political and personal. Politically, Bush's career has consistently exhibited three themes: (a) always spend somebody else's money to get what you want; and (b) remember to "dance with the fella that brung ya" (meaning, be sure to take care of your friends); and (c) pay no attention to the mess you leave for somebody else to clean up. These themes have appeared again and again throughout his career in commerce and politics.
After the 2000 election, Bush's conservative base was just itching for a fight with someone. The base was disappointed that Saddam had not been killed in the first Gulf War and they were convinced he was the mastermind of 9/11. Killing Saddam Hussein would be condign justice long overdue, in their view. The son would succeed where the father had failed. Bush's election in 2004 would be guaranteed.
Some historians believe Bush wanted to kill Saddam Hussein as payback for Saddam's attempt to assassinate George H. W. Bush in Kuwait in 1993. At a September 26, 2002 fundraiser, in a rare moment of transparency, Bush said of Saddam, "After all, this is the guy that tried to kill my dad at one time." He was determined to have Saddam's head.
Cheney I think, had other, grander objectives. He too wanted to kill Saddam Hussein but his reasons had to do mainly with business. The people who had "brung him to the dance" were oilmen, friends made during his years in Washington and in Houston. Gaining control of Iraq's oil fields would have much appeal and huge profit potential for Cheney cronies in the construction, oil drilling, oilfield services, and oil refining businesses. Many of these people may have been involved in Cheney's secret 2001 Energy Task Force; the full list of Task Force participants was never officially revealed.
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