Dropping Fertility Rates: A Capitalist's Worst Nightmare
The replacement fertility rate the rate which keeps total population at the same level is 2.1 children per woman. When the fertility rate drops below 2.1, total population drops, unless augmented by immigration. In most of the industrial north, fertility rates currently hover between 1.11.4. Although rates are much higher in the developing world, they are dropping there as well. The fertility rate in the third world, 6.0 in 1972, had dropped to 2.9 in 2010.
Demographers attribute the massive reduction of fertility in the developed world mainly to the widespread entry of women into the workforce. With availability, affordability and acceptability of reliable birth control measures including abortion on demand as an important secondary factor. Fertility rates also tend to be lower in countries experiencing serious economic difficulties over the past two decades ( Japan , Eastern Europe , Spain , Italy and Greece have been in and out of recession since the 1990s). The fertility rate in Japan is at the lower end at 1.21. In Eastern Europe , it hovers around 1.27. In the Soviet Union low fertility, combined with net out-migration is actually causing total population to decline.
Pressures Keeping Third World Populations High
Demographers have always blamed the combination of an agrarian economy with widespread chronic illness for high fertility rates in the third world. And point to the drop in birth rates accompanying the increasing urbanization of developing countries. The problem with tuberculosis, a major plague in the third world as well as malaria, dengue fever, sleeping sickness and river blindness and other nasty tropical illnesses is that they don't necessarily kill you. It is fairly common for half the members of an extended family to be incapacitated (unable to work) by such illnesses for 20 years or more. Which in cultures reliant on subsistence farming, results in constant pressure to have more children to provide extra farm labor.
Pressures Keeping First World Populations High
The best country to study in terms of first world population pressures is the US, where the fertility rate is 2.1 in contrast with 1.1 -1.4 in the rest of the industrialized world. In my mind, the fact that global economists view our high fertility rate as a success story says it all: namely that there are deliberate policies and messaging in operation to encourage robust US population growth.
The problem with capitalism is that it only works well in a society with perpetual growth. And perpetual growth is only possible in cultures with significant population growth. Economists blame Japan 's continuing deflation on its low birth rate. And political leaders in Korea , which has a fertility rate of 1.08, are frantic that their county is headed down the same road unless they can massively increase immigration or convince large numbers of women to have more babies.
Next Page 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
2
1
1
