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Tomgram: Rajan Menon, A War for the Record Books

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This article originally appeared at TomDispatch.com. To receive TomDispatch in your inbox three times a week, click here.

Yes, as TomDispatch regular Rajan Menon points out today, the world was surprised first by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and then by his army's failure to capture Kyiv and obliterate the government of Volodymyr Zelensky. In truth, though, we Americans probably shouldn't have been. After all, it shouldn't have been all that hard to recall a similar American-style scenario -- say, the U.S. military's disastrous attempt to defeat a rebel movement (and North Vietnamese forces) in South Vietnam in the last century or to do something similar in Afghanistan in this one. Either of those might, in retrospect, have been considered American Ukraines. In fact, it almost seems like an unnoticed truth of our moment that the more money a country puts into its military, the less striking the results from its use in the world.

Yes, until Ukraine, the Russian military, funded and upgraded by President Vladimir Putin, was thought to be a winner of a force. Today, pressed to the edge of who knows what and having thrown a private mercenary outfit (the Wagner Group) and tens of thousands of barely trained prison convicts into the front lines of death in Ukraine, it looks unimpressive as hell. Strangely enough, however, despite losses of every sort over the last three-quarters of a century, the world's best-funded military (by a country mile) is still considered impressive as hell (and I don't use that word lightly). Explain that as you will.

And by the way, the Russians never took the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, but in the American version of their war -- the invasion of Iraq in 2003 -- the U.S. military did indeed take Baghdad and little good it did them. Perhaps what we need on this increasingly odd planet of ours is a new assessment of the significance of traditional military power. If only. In that context, let Menon (who has seen the war in Ukraine firsthand) take you through the true strangeness of Vladimir Putin's attempt to invade and conquer his neighbor. Tom

The War of Surprises in Ukraine
Could There Be One Surprise Too Many?

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Some wars acquire names that stick. The Lancaster and York clans fought the War of the Roses from 1455-1485 to claim the British throne. The Hundred Years' War pitted England against France from 1337-1453. In the Thirty Years' War, 1618-1648, many European countries clashed, while Britain and France waged the Seven Years' War, 1756-63, across significant parts of the globe. World War I (1914-1918) gained the lofty moniker, "The Great War," even though World II (1939-1945) would prove far greater in death, destruction, and its grim global reach.

Of the catchier conflict names, my own favorite -- though the Pig War of 1859 between the U.S. and Great Britain in Canada runs a close second -- is the War of Jenkins' Ear (1739-1748). It was named for Captain Robert Jenkins of the East India Company who, in 1738, told the British House of Commons that his ear, which he displayed for the onlooking parliamentarians, had been severed several years earlier by a Spanish coast guard sloop's commander. He had boarded the ship off the Cuban coast and committed the outrage using Jenkins's own cutlass. If ever there was cause for war, that was it! An ear for an ear, so to speak.

If I could give Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine a name for posterity, I think I'd call it the War of Surprises, because from the get-go it so thoroughly confounded the military mavens and experts on Russia and Ukraine. For now, though, let me confine myself to exploring just two surprising aspects of that ongoing conflict, both of which can be posed as questions: Why did it occur when it did? Why has it evolved in such unexpected ways?

It's NATO's Fault

Though a slim majority of experts opined that Putin might use force against Ukraine many months after his military buildup on Ukraine's border began in early 2021, few foresaw an all-out invasion. When he started massing troops, the reigning assumption was that he was muscle-flexing, probably to extract a promise that NATO would cease expanding toward Russia.

Some context helps here. NATO had just 16 members at its Cold War peak. More than three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has 30 -- 32 when Finland and Sweden, which sought membership after Putin's invasion, are allowed to join. Long before Putin became president in 2000, Russian officials were already condemning the eastward march of the American-led former Cold War alliance. His predecessor Boris Yeltsin made his opposition clear to President Bill Clinton.

In October 1993, as Secretary of State Warren Christopher prepared to travel to Russia, James Collins, charge' d'affaires at the American embassy in Moscow, sent him a cable warning that "NATO expansion is neuralgic to Russians." If continued "without holding the door open to Russia," he added, it would be "universally interpreted in Moscow as directed against Russia and Russia alone -- or 'Neo-Containment,' as Foreign Minister [Andrei] Kozyrev recently suggested."

In February 2008, eight years into Putin's presidency and about a month before a NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, William Burns, then the American ambassador to Moscow and now the director of the CIA, sent a cable to Washington focusing on Ukraine. "NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine," he warned, "remains an 'emotional and neuralgic' issue for Russia." That same month, in a memo to President George W. Bush's National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Burns wrote that Ukraine's entry into NATO would cross "the brightest of all red lines" for Russia's leaders. "I have," he continued, "yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

Such diplomatic missives had little effect as NATO expansion became the centerpiece of Washington's new security order in Europe. In April 2008, at Bush's urging, NATO finally took a fateful step at that Bucharest summit, declaring that Ukraine and Georgia would, one day, join its ranks.

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Tom Engelhardt, who runs the Nation Institute's Tomdispatch.com ("a regular antidote to the mainstream media"), is the co-founder of the American Empire Project and, most recently, the author of Mission Unaccomplished: Tomdispatch (more...)
 

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