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Final Notes on the Discussion of "The Unpopular Prospect of World War III: The 20th Century Is Not Over Yet"

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Andreas Umland
And what about this Pew report (http://pewglobal.org/commentary/display.php?AnalysisID=1019), which I also mentioned in my post and which found that over the period of time Umland is talking about, favorable opinions of the United States have actually increased in Russia: from 37% in 2000 to 43% in 2006.  Does Umland have any evidence that Pew pollsters were under the Kremlin's "stricter control"?

That's what I call "cherry-picking" polling data: present data that support your position and ignore those that don't.

Absent the data on U.S. favorability, what else does Umland have?  Nothing.  He frets over the fact that in mid-August 2008, 48% of Russians opined that "[t]he U.S. leadership wants to extend its influence on Russia's neighboring states."  This is ridiculous.  A political scientist, as he is, Umland must understand the difference between negative views of foreign policy of the Bush administration and negative views of the United States as a country.  He's also concerned that many Russians believe that the cold war is still going on.  So what?  Has he ever heard about a guy named Edward Lucas?  Lucas not only believes, too, that the cold war still continues; he's written a book about it.  Will Umland accuse Lucas of rampant anti-Americanism?

I'm puzzled with the amount of attention Umland pays to the nature of my relations with Russia Profile.  True, occasionally, I contribute to Vladimir Frolov's weekly expert panel, but I have never submitted anything directly to RP.  I know that almost every piece of mine that appears in JRL is later re-published by RP.  I guess this is because of some, unknown to me, agreement between JRL and RP.  Yet I cannot have any responsibility for the format RP uses to reproduce my pieces (even if I cared).

The rest of Umland's comments are noise, a smokescreen aimed at hiding the fact that he has nothing to say on the substance of my critique.  I'm obviously not going to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict: I didn't touch this subject.  Nor am I going to engage in a discussion of who Umland should consider himself: a suicidal or a paranoid liar.  Intelligent people, and I definitely count Umland as one, must make such decisions by themselves.

Oh, yes, there is one thing Umland and I completely agree upon: I'm indeed cautiously optimistic about the future of U.S.-Russia relations.  And yes, I consider talks about a nuclear war between the two countries deliberately provocative.
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For further Russian and Ukrainian comments, see:
http://www.newsland.ru/News/Detail/id/343304/cat/42/
http://www.glavred.com/archive/2009/02/23/182544-1.html
http://blogs.korrespondent.net/celebrities/blog/forum2004/a8634
http://smi.liga.net/articles/IT091046.html 
 
http://www.delfi.ua/news/exclusive/interview/article.php?id=349466&com=1

 

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============================================================================== Andreas Umland, CertTransl (Leipzig), MA (Stanford), MPhil (Oxford), DipPolSci, DrPhil (FU Berlin), PhD (Cambridge). Visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution (more...)
 
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