Another theory suggests that U.S. officials got so caught up in their own rhetoric about the EuroMaidan being the antithesis what former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Putin's " move to re-Sovietize the region ," that when the counter-reaction in the East and South ensued, they simply fell back to familiar Cold War stereotypes .
Another theory, closely related to the second, is that many western pundits and analysts subscribe to Zbigniew Brzezinski's view , expressed twenty years ago, that "without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire." Few bother to ask whether dealing with Ukraine primarily on the basis of whether or not it is a key factor in reconstituting the "Russian empire" might be the very reason Ukraine's domestic politics has become so intractable.
I am partial to these last two theories, though there is another aspect worth considering. Neither the United States nor the European Union can exert more than a fraction of the economic, cultural, and political influence that Russia has in Ukraine. This generates enormous frustration in both Europe and Washington over their inability to influence events, and no doubt contributes to the rhetorical hyperbole.
5 - The Western officials have been trying to pretend that during the Euromaidan protests, the forces of the expelled president Victor Yanukovich have fired bullets at the protesters, but a leaked phone call between the Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton shows that they were the opposition forces themselves that shot at some protesters with the intention of preparing the minds and laying the groundwork for staging a coup in Ukraine. What do you make of this leaked phone conversation?
There should be a thorough investigation, not just of the sniper shootings, but of how the initially peaceful protests on the Maidan degenerated into lawlessness and violence. Since there are two very different narratives in the country about how and why this happened, the best way to do this would be to set up a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to investigate these issues. Such commissions have helped to heal rifts in many different countries. If composed of individuals seen as truly be independent of government pressure (perhaps through the addition of a few foreign experts), the process could to promote the national unity that Ukraine so badly needs.
6 - What do you think about the future of Ukraine and Crimea now that a government has come to power in Kiev which is said to have neo-Nazi and neo-fascistic inclinations? Do you think that the crisis in the region will spin out of control with the Western intervention or the Russia would be able to calm down the situation?
Many worthwhile proposals have been made for how to resolve this crisis, but one that stands out in my mind is that of former deputy Ukrainian foreign minister Alexander Chalyi.
Ambassador Chalyi's plan would implement the February 21st agreement between the government and opposition in spirit, if not in letter. The main difference would be that Yanukovych is not returned to office. As per the accords, a constitutional referendum would be held to ratify a new constitution before presidential and parliamentary elections. In exchange, Ukraine would declare its non-aligned status, immediately sign the political chapters of its EU Association Agreement, and being to implement a new plan for autonomy of Crimea within Ukraine.
Chalyi's plan meets the two Russian requirements for a return to the status quo ante. First, that the population in the East and the South must be safe. Second, that they be part of the political process. According to Putin's interview on March 4, this would indicate that the "socio-political situation in the country is normalizing," and remove any rationale for Russian intervention.
The main stumbling bloc now is the referendum in Crimea, though that too could be negotiated if there was the will to do so. One way to do so might be to declare that the referendum is not binding, but advisory. Under article 46 of the Law on All-Ukrainian and Local Referenda, such "consultative referenda" can be held "in the interest of determining the will of the citizenry on both national and local matters." Such referenda need only be approved by two-thirds of the deputies of a regional parliament.
The interim government in Kiev would have to step back from its earlier declaration that the results of the Crimean referendum as meaningless, say that it regards them as advisory, and is willing to begin negotiations on that basis. For its part, the Crimean parliament could take a step back and treat the referendum results as a very strong bargaining position for further negotiations, rather than as a mandate for separation. To encourage the latter, a key point to negotiate would be the need to hold a binding referendum on the status of Crimea, under the auspices of international observers and with the consent of the Ukrainian government, at some fixed date in the future, perhaps after the next Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections.
In sum, there are many ways to reach a compromise and avoid further
antagonism. It is not yet clear, however, if the parties actually want to reach
a compromise, or, in fact, prefer confrontation.
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