A Look Back at Clapper's Jan. 2017 "Assessment" on Russia-gate

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The next questioner, a former manager of State Department intelligence, posed another salient question: Why, he asked, was State Department intelligence excluded from the "Intelligence Community Assessment"?

Among the dubious reasons Clapper gave was the claim, "We only had a month, and so it wasn't treated as a full-up National Intelligence Estimate where all 16 members of the intelligence community would pass judgment on it." Clapper then tried to spread the blame around ("That was a deliberate decision that we made and that I agreed with"), but as director of national intelligence the decision was his.

Given the questioner's experience in the State Department's intelligence, he was painfully aware of how quickly a "full-up NIE" can be prepared. He knew all too well that the October 2002 NIE, "Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction," was ginned up in less than a month, when Cheney and Bush wanted to get Congress to vote for war on Iraq. (As head of imagery analysis, Clapper signed off on that meretricious estimate, even though he knew no WMD sites had been confirmed in Iraq.)

It's in the Russians' DNA

The criteria Clapper used to handpick his own assistants are not hard to divine. An Air Force general in the mold of Curtis LeMay, Clapper knows all about "the Russians." And he does not like them, not one bit. During an interview with NBC on May 28, 2017, Clapper referred to "the historical practices of the Russians, who typically, are almost genetically driven to co-opt, penetrate, gain favor, whatever, which is a typical Russian technique." And just before I questioned him at Carnegie, he muttered, "It's in their DNA."

Even those who may accept Clapper's bizarre views about Russian genetics still lack credible proof that (as the ICA concludes "with high confidence") Russia's main military intelligence unit, the G.R.U., created a "persona" called Guccifer 2.0 to release the emails of the Democratic National Committee. When those disclosures received what was seen as insufficient attention, the G.R.U. "relayed material it acquired from the D.N.C. and senior Democratic officials to WikiLeaks," the assessment said.

At Carnegie, Clapper cited "forensics." But forensics from where? To his embarrassment, then-FBI Director James Comey, for reasons best known to him, chose not to do forensics on the "Russian hack" of the DNC computers, preferring to rely on a computer outfit of tawdry reputation hired by the DNC. Moreover, there is zero indication that the drafters of the ICA had any reliable forensics to work with.

In contrast, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, working with independent forensic investigators, examined metadata from a July 5, 2016 DNC intrusion that was alleged to be a "hack." However, the metadata showed a transfer speed far exceeding the capacity of the Internet at the time. Actually, all the speed turned out to be precisely what a thumb drive could accommodate, indicating that what was involved was a copy onto an external storage device and not a hack by Russia or anyone else.

WikiLeaks had obtained the DNC emails earlier. On June 12, 2016, Julian Assange announced he had "emails relating to Hillary Clinton." NSA appears to lack any evidence that those emails, the embarrassing ones showing that the DNC cards were stacked against Bernie Sanders, were hacked.

Since NSA's dragnet coverage scoops up everything on the Internet, NSA or its partners can, and do, trace all hacks. In the absence of evidence that the DNC was hacked, all available factual evidence indicates that earlier in the spring of 2016, an external-storage device like a thumb drive was used in copying the DNC emails given to WikiLeaks.

Additional investigation has proved Guccifer 2.0 to be an out-and-out fabrication and a faulty basis for indictments.

A Gaping Gap

Clapper and the directors of the CIA, FBI, and NSA briefed President Obama on the ICA on Jan. 5, 2007, the day before they briefed President-elect Trump. At Carnegie, I asked Clapper to explain why President Obama still had serious doubts. On Jan. 18, 2017, at his final press conference, Obama saw fit to use lawyerly language to cover his own derriere, saying: "The conclusions of the intelligence community with respect to the Russian hacking were not conclusive as to whether WikiLeaks was witting or not in being the conduit through which we heard about the DNC e-mails that were leaked."

So we end up with "inconclusive conclusions" on that admittedly crucial point. In other words, U.S. intelligence does not know how the DNC emails got to WikiLeaks. In the absence of any evidence from NSA (or from its foreign partners) of an Internet hack of the DNC emails the claim that "the Russians gave the DNC emails to WikiLeaks" rests on thin gruel. After all, these agencies collect everything that goes over the Internet.

Clapper answered: "I cannot explain what he [Obama] said or why. But I can tell you we're, we're pretty sure we know, or knew at the time, how WikiLeaks got those emails."

Really?

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