In Lebanon, a redoubtable elite, representing various sects is greatly alarmed that the balance of power -- struck in Lebanon through years of civil wars and subsequent treaties (fair to some, utterly unfair to others) -- might be hindered with the re-rise of Hizbollah.
At one point, it was hoped that by removing the Syrian factor from the Lebanese equation, and weakening Hizbollah militarily, a pro-American Lebanon would effortlessly emerge: the old neoconservative calculation. That is yet to happen. However, Saad Hariri, son of former prime minister Rafik Hariri' condemnation of Syria, calling it a greater threat to Lebanon than Israel, just a day after the end of the Israeli onslaught, speaks volumes regarding the nationalistic priorities of this crowd.
JF: How is the US and Israel attempting to capitalize on all this?
In fact, I strongly believe that the 'rebuilding of Lebanon' will become the unparalleled mantra for the various leaderships in the country, vying for power and recognition, and those who finance and back them outside. Though their intent might be partly humanitarian, it's most certainly largely political. Remember that Hizbollah is already being blamed by some within the Lebanese political landscape for inviting Israel's wrath and destruction; just imagine, if the anti-Hizbollah forces managed to take credit for 'rebuilding' what Hizbollah has 'destroyed'.
Hizbollah's open war with Israel might be over for now, but the internal conflict it's likely to face in Lebanon itself is yet to begin.
JF: So what does this mean for the plight of the Palestinians? How will Hizbollah's holding off of the Israeli military effect Hamas and other groups in the region?
RB: The humiliating nature of the Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon in May 2000, under intense Hizbollah strikes effected the relationship between the Israeli army and Palestinian resistance groups in the Second Palestinian Intifada, which commenced merely a few months later. I discussed this relationship in the entry to my recent book, the Second Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a People's Struggle.
Those who had advocated armed resistance to Israeli military occupation were empowered by the Lebanese resistance; the Hizbollah achievement renewed confidence in the armed option. The Hizbollah yellow banner suddenly became a major symbol for Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, and some factions, like Hamas introduced the yellow color to its own banners.
Israel was also wary of the possible affects of its military failures in Lebanon on the behavior of the Palestinian resistance; various Israeli army officials, including Shaoul Mofaz warned Palestinians from expected a repeat of the Lebanese scenario in the Occupied Territories. This, in part, explains Israel's use of unprecedented violence against Palestinians in the territories, as early as the first days of the uprising, thus sending a clear message that "Lebanon is not Palestine." (The Israeli military used F-15, F-16 and helicopter gunships against Palestinian towns and refugee camps) ; it also explains why Palestinians upgrading their methods of resistance, going beyond rocks and slingshots.
Once again, Israel is preparing to send another clear message packed with violence to the Palestinians should they feel inspired by Hizbollah's recent victory in Lebanon. In fact, Israel might not even wait for a provocation to send that message, especially as the politically besieged Olmert is in desperate need for an outlet, a distraction and an easy victory. By postponing its 'disengagement' plan in the West Bank, the isolation of the elected Palestinian government and the lack of any peace initiative (or the interest to start one), the Israeli government is fully equipped to upgrade its violence against the Palestinians. Though Palestinian factions, due to the political uncertainty and the ongoing struggle between the government and Fatah, might not be ready to change tactics or amend styles any time soon, the success of the armed resistance in Lebanon shall leave an impact on Palestinian and Arab psyche for generations.
Since Israel has already ruled out a just peace with Palestinians, such a realization could only mean one thing: another military onslaught.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
