We should denuclearize the Middle East. Of the six countries, five are huge and Israel is tiny. Iran has more conventional weaponry.
But the Middle East has gone through other changes. The fault line is now the Israel-Palestine conflict. Now the Iran focus has shifted from Israel to the US. The Arabs moved into the place of Iran after its revolution.
Israel has dealt well with its adversaries but can’t control the situation in Gaza. It sees Iran as a trap and strongly opposed its nuclear progress. The British say that a strong Iran is dangerous. But consider that in the last 250 years Iran hasn’t invaded any other country. Nor is it a rising power; after the revolution it was most comparable to North Korea, that is, very weak. The “rising power” myth maintained by Bush also is the basis for enemy opposition. Compromise is needed. Iran’s geopolitical position is weak. It has four options: 1) Reject nuclear power; 2) use it only for energy; 3) use it for energy and weaponry; 4) “go all out.” A ban on Iranian nuclear power will focus the options on 2) and 4) unless Iran is hit first. We must work with it.
A point subsequently added from the audience was that the Arab and Israeli economies are converging. Israel has increased its investment in the Persian Gulf. Syria is not doing much because it is seeking a compromise over the Golan Heights, which will be reached long before Iran, Israel, and the US come to an agreement, which will be necessary before a compromise is reached between Israel and Palestine.
Another question was what the US could do to lessen the bond between Iran and Russia, which, by the way, will reduce Russia’s power. It should explore better relations with the US.
Moreover, the relationship between Iran and Russia is purely opportunistic. When they solve their problems, Russia will exit. The US doesn’t want Russia on its side. It prefers that it ally with China to veto Security Council decisions. Thence a “coalition of the willing” can re-form. Diplomacy will end.
The next speaker was Christopher Brown, Director of Research and Education of the American Security Council Foundation. The main enemies of Bolivarian (i.e., Communist) Venezuela are the US, Mexico, and Bolivia. Russia is supplying Venezuela with oil and funding terrorism and political subversion there.
Venezuela holds 7 percent of the world’s oil supply and 6 percent of its oil and gas supply while Iran holds 10 percent of the latter category. Daily oil production in Iran and Venezuela have damaged production. Will Iran regain its lost oil fields? Iran and Venezuela are seeking oil transport to further undermine the US dollar and hence weaken it further and cut off its oil supplies. US efforts must concentrate on Iran, Afghanistan, and Colombia [the speaker was speaking so quickly I may have lost his logic flow here-ed.], which have to be sure that the US loses.
The US State department questions whether Venezuela aided Colombian terrorists. Iran is the most active supporter of terrorism. Joining it in this direction are Sudan, Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela.
The future is now; we dwell so much on the past as a precedent, but ideology and loose networks are becoming the norm. Terrorism is spreading. Hezbollah is in Venezuela, Uzbekistan, Algeria, and Iran. Iran is being trained by the Chinese.
On 9/11, he said, Iran was most responsible for US deaths by terrorism. Now traditional statecraft is less relevant. Ideology-based interests will rise. We must consider who are our allies and who are our enemies. It is important that bin Laden went from Pakistan to Afghanistan after Russia invaded it; thence he traveled to Turkey.
The world has become a complex place. War is God’s way of teaching geography to Americans.
During the discussion period that followed, the point was made that Iran can’t turn back but will stop its nuclear progression—we have the power to stop it. We must help. We must supply huge incentives. It’s important to understand Iran’s insecurities. There are two aspects to Iran: the people support us while the government does not.
Ironically, Iran is energy poor. It is turning to nuclear energy as the wave of the future. Then came the opposite viewpoint, that Iran must support itself and shouldn’t be helped; its government didn’t antagonize the US until Ahmadinejad came along.
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