(1.) First off, for the past decade, the reelection rate for House incumbents not under indictment has been 94-98%. Even in the Republican wave year of 1994, 90% of all incumbents were reelected. Reasons for this effect include incumbents being better known and having more money than their challengers and having a track record of bringing home the bacon...
(2) Generic House polls currently favor the Republicans despite the fact that virtually every poll shows that even though the voters dislike the congressional Democrats by large margins, they dislike the Republicans even more.
Translation: Americans say they're more likely to vote Republican. But they also say they dislike the Republican Party more than the Democratic Party. Hmmm.
Sorting through Congressional trends, and paying special attention to representatives who received more than 55 percent of the ballots cast in the last election, the Votemaster currently suggests that Democrats lead in 220 House seats, Republicans lead in 184 and 31 are tied. Thatmath suggests that if the current equation holds, Democrats can lose every one of the 31 tied seats and still retain control of the House.
Trusting anonymous websites can be a dangerous practice. But as the Votemaster notes, he received 1 million hits a day during the last presidential election cycle so plenty of people take him seriously. As for his own politics, he writes,
I am a libertarian and lean towards the Democrats, but I have a lot of respect for traditional conservative Republicans like Sen. Barry Goldwater, who believed that what consenting adults do in private is none of the government's business. Like Goldwater and also Bill Clinton, I believe in balancing the federal budget.
Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan.
I accept his explanation and agree with his calculus.
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