The European establishment is more worried about the anti-austerity bloc. Germany and northern European countries -- along with the Continent's business elites -- are alarmed that the anti-austerity parties will unite into a bloc able to disrupt first the politics in various nations and then elections in the European Union.
These anti-austerity forces could appeal to centrist voters as Syriza's victory in Greece and polls in other countries have shown. The internal politics in Spain, Italy and France -- much larger countries than Greece -- could lead to an alliance that, given their economic weight and population, could push back on austerity in the 19-member Eurozone.
How Radical?
Parties like Syriza and Podemos have surged in popularity by siphoning off votes from traditional center-left, social-democratic parties, which have generally accepted the austerity demands. To a lesser extent, some center-right fence-straddlers have also switched to these new populist movements.
In Spain, Podemos is edging ahead in a three-way sprint with the ruling conservative Popular Party and the Socialist Party, with municipal, regional and national elections starting in March and ending in December. The Podemos base is young, including activists who ignited the global "Occupy" movement in May 2011 when protesters spontaneously took over Madrid's most important squares.
The party was started less than a year ago by a group of university professors who were involved as advisers in Latin America's Bolivarian movement, especially in Venezuela. Traditional parties, even those to its left, accuse Podemos of being Chavista, i.e., inspired by Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez.
But Podemos's broad proposals (details are still pending) are not so radical. They reject the notion of a Chavista-like regime in Spain and don't intend to flout the country's financial obligations. But they do want an overhaul of economic policies. And despite mounting attacks from Spain's establishment, Podemos appears to be gaining momentum after Syriza's victory.
The Irish cousin of Syriza and Podemos is Sinn Fein, which has recently taken the lead in opinion polls. In Italy, the center-left government, which until now has been the most vocal in the EU against German-imposed austerity, is facing an internal rebellion from those who want it to take an even harder line.
The situations in France and Portugal are more fluid with the Socialists discredited and the Left splintered but increasingly anti-austerity. Perhaps the biggest uncertainty is France. It won't hold elections any time soon, but the Parti de Gauche is rising. If Podemos gets enough leverage in Spain and Italy's government moves further to the left, there might just be enough political muscle to confront Germany and offer an alternative to its austerity policies.
"The German risk is a new form of conservatism which is the fetishism of budget balance, the fascination for debt reduction, which is also the symptom of an aging country," French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron said, signaling the French Socialists might climb on the anti-austerity bandwagon.
But Berlin and northern European capitals are going through opposite political realities, with their constituents demanding more austerity from the rest of Europe. This bloc remains the most powerful when it comes to decision-making, among other things because it has the support of the conservative governments in Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
A Edge to the Populists
Over the next year or so, the electoral cycles also favor the anti-austerity parties, though perhaps not enough to oust the ruling elites and replace the current mindset but still enough to force greater flexibility on debt and budget issues.
This idea of making governments serve the people's needs rather than the interests of the creditor class is spreading outside the Eurozone as well, including the U.K., the Democratic Party in the U.S., and even in the EU Parliament and among some IMF economists.
The democratic sea change that appears to be sweeping across Europe is also the result of an ongoing generational change as well as a sign of deep divisions in the establishment that have been exposed by the Great Recession. In essence, this movement is calling for Europe's democracy to be more populist, more direct, more in the service of the people, less obedient to the ruling elites.
While the resistance to austerity arguably started from isolated flickers across the Continent -- resentment toward the harsh cuts in the welfare state and the stubborn levels of record unemployment -- it has grown into a political firestorm across southern Europe.
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