Current funding will run out by midsummer
The Ukrainian resistance needs constant help from outside. Many voices are recommending that the United States surge aid to strengthen Ukraine for the expected spring offensive. The additional equipment might break the Russian forces and force their retreat. However, there are big risks.
First, Ukrainian forces may not be fully trained on the equipment they receive. This would lead to higher losses and wasted material. Second, if the battlefield result is not decisive, voices calling for negotiation would become stronger. If a surge does not produce victory, the argument will become, what's the point of continuing to spend tens of billions of dollars? The depletion of weapons stocks and the appropriating additional aid will spark a political battle.
Polls show that "war fatigue" is growing in the United States as it is in Europe.
Congressman Matthew Gaetz introduced a bill calling for the United States to "end its military and financial aid to Ukraine, and [urge] all combatants to reach a peace agreement." Although the bill will go nowhere, it indicates where some Republican members are.
In October, a group of 30 Democratic progressives signed a letter urging President Biden "to make vigorous diplomatic efforts in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire, engage in direct talks with Russia, [and] explore prospects for a new European security arrangement acceptable to all parties." Although the group withdrew the letter quickly under White House pressure, the sentiment remains.
The notion of negotiating a peaceful settlement is attractive as a way to end the violence, reduce the threat of waste and abuse, and keep funds inside the United States. Battlefield success and honest government are key determinants for support, one way or another.
Both Russia and Ukraine are preparing offensives. The Russians have incorporated their mobilized personnel and increased attacks in the Donetsk area. The Ukrainians are assimilating new equipment and having troops trained in Europe. These dueling offensives will soon launch. If Ukraine can show progress on the ground, supporters will be more inclined to provide aid. In addition to the satisfaction of success, there will be the prospect of the war ending. Fears about a "forever war" undermine support for aid by making it appear that the commitment will go on indefinitely.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
