CA 23 is the most Republican district in California. Located at the bottom of the San Joaquin valley, it spans parts of Kern and Tulare counties. Its largest city is Bakersfield.
CA 23 is represented by Kevin McCarthy, the House Minority Leader and, at the moment, the most powerful California Republican. In 2016, McCarthy garnered 69.1 percent of the vote (Trump had 58.1 percent). In 2018, McCarthy had 63.7 percent.
McCarthy was an early Trump supporter and backs him across-the-board
CA 42 is in Riverside County, in southern California. Its largest city is Corona.
CA 42 is represented by Ken Calvert. In 2016, Calvert garnered 58.8 percent (Trump had 53.4 percent). In 2018, Calvert got 56.7 percent of the vote.
Calvert has been in office since 1992 and has little to show for it.
CA 50 lies primarily in central and eastern San Diego County. Its largest city is Escondido.
CA 50 is represented by Duncan Duane Hunter. (In 2008, he succeeded his father, Duncan Lee Hunter.) In 2016, Hunter garnered 63.5 percent of the vote (Trump got 54.6 percent). In 2018, Hunter was narrowly reelected with 51.8 percent after he accused Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar -- a Christian -- of being "an Islamist" and "security threat."
In August, Duncan Duane Hunter, and his wife, were indicted by the Department of Justice for allegedly spending more than $250,000 in campaign funds on personal expenses. Their trial is scheduled for September of 2019.
Summary: These seven Republicans are vulnerable on three issues: the first is climate change -- they're all climate-change deniers even though there's ample evidence in California: drought and horrendous fires. (La Malfa continues to deny climate change even though the Paradise fire happened in his district.)
All seven voted against Obamacare -- which is very popular in California.
Finally, all seven voted for the Trump tax cuts and, in general, have represented the special interests in their district and neglected their less affluent constituents. This is particularly a problem for La Malfa, McClintock, Cook, and Calvert, who represent very poor districts and have shown no interest in job-creation initiatives.
In 2020, it's easy to imagine Democrats picking off Calvert (CA 42) and Hunter (CA 50) because they have personal issues and undistinguished records. (White non-Hispanic voters will soon be in a minority in CA 42).
With good organizing, and a 24-month campaign, it's reasonable to imagine Democrats winning CA 1, CA 4, and CA 8.
The most difficult targets are Nunes (CA 22) and McCarthy (CA 23). They both have strong connections to wealthy GOP donors and, as a result, millions to spend on reelection. Their vulnerability is their tight connection to Trump. If Donald goes down the drain, it's possible to imagine Nunes and McCarthy going down with him.
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