- Final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote by assuming that nearly one in six returning Obama voters defected to the GOP.
- Vote shares were n/a for the 6% that were returning 2008 third party ("Other") and new ("DNV") voters.
- The percentage mix of returning third-party ("Other") 2008 voters invariably indicated that there were more returning third-party voters voters than actually voted in 2008.
In the three elections, the Democrats"
- lost the average recorded vote by 3.0% but won the True Vote by 3.2%, even assuming a 9% GOP edge in 2008 voter turnout.
- won returning 2008 Obama and McCain voters by a 46.7-45.1%
- won the "When Decided" category by 50.0-47.6% (the exit pollsters did not force a match to the recorded vote).
- led the GOP in Party ID by 40.3-36.0%.
As always, exit poll weightings and vote shares for all categories were rounded to the nearest 1%. There is no reason why they are not displayed to the nearest tenth of a percent -- unless the pollsters want to fudge the vote shares to match the recorded vote - which they do anyway. After all, more than 17,000 voters were interviewed in the National Exit Poll and approximately 2000 in each state. Analysts want to see the unadjusted, "pristine" numbers -- but the NEP won't allow that. They want to keep us guessing.
The conventional wisdom is that the 2010 midterms were a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different. The media pundits accept the recorded vote and final exit polls as gospel and never question the official results . And they never mention the fact that it is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote .
Historically, the strong correlations between a) pre-election registered voter polls and unadjusted exit polls and b) pre-election likely voter polls and final exit polls ( i.i . the recorded vote), is a clear indication of election fraud. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. We have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.
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