Following years of relentless work from local activists, perhaps the most important part of de Blasio's divestment announcement was the flat rejection of the idea that "engaging" with the fossil-fuel companies was a viable strategy. Many timid politicians have taken that approach, arguing that it was fine to keep investing in these companies as long as "dialogue" was underway. ExxonMobil, for instance, responded to pressure last year by promising "climate risk disclosure" about new projects. That's not nothing, but it's pretty close to nothing--especially since, at the same time, the companies were busy in Washington making sure they opened up the US coastline to new drilling. New Yorkers aren't chumps, de Blasio pointed out. "Today, we are saying 'No more.'"
All this financial pressure is made easier by the fact that the fossil-fuel industry is no longer minting money. It's been underperforming the rest of the economy -- and no wonder. Sun and wind are ultimately free, and that puts remarkable price pressure on the stuff you have to dig up and burn. Every single day, the electric car moves further along the path from novelty to normal. That means every single day Chevron's position erodes a little further. The question now is not whether big oil is going down; the question is how fast -- and how we make sure the transition is a just one. The answer to that question will determine exactly how far down the road to climate ruin we actually travel.
The political saliency of the climate issue grows stronger too, especially as it becomes clear that it's not some niche concern of affluent suburbanites with a weekend home in the country. Polling makes clear that African Americans and Latinos are the two groups most concerned about climate change, which makes sense since they've borne the brunt of the effects so far. (All it takes is a record rainstorm to find out who lives at the bottom of the hill.)These are also the groups taking the lead in climate organizing, giving it a new and vital energy. Vice, the CNN of the young, reported this month that "the next millennial trend is suing big oil for destructive climate change," apparently replacing avocado toast.
None of which means that the fight is won. Big Oil has had a big year, and they hold most of the levers in Washington. But they're beginning to lose in a lot of other places -- including in people's hearts and minds. Destruction like that wrought by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and Maria; tragedy like that wrought by California's fires and mudslides -- it takes a toll. No lie lives forever, and 2018 may be the year that the most dangerous deceit in the planet's history finally unravels for good.
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