Hillary Mann Leverett, an adviser on Iran in former President George W. Bush's administration, told CNN that this act made no sense, and contradicted Iran's national security strategy. She stated, "There's no benefit; there's no payoff in them pursuing this kind of hit against Adel Al-Jubeir. And it runs contrary to their entire national security strategy."
If Iran wanted to punish Saudi Arabia it had plenty of targets in the region, including in Saudi Arabia itself, Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Persian Gulf region in general. If it wanted to target a diplomat, the worst choice would be on U.S. soil where such an act would be easily uncovered and would not go unpunished. It is not clear why Iran would even target a small functionary of the Saudi diplomatic core. Al-Jubeir is neither royalty nor a significant player in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy.
Since at least 2003, the Iranian national security strategy has been to de-escalate regional tensions and avoid any confrontation with the U.S. or its regional allies, especially Saudi Arabia. It has been in the middle of unprecedented build-up of its military power, especially its navy, nuclear power, and long-range missile programs. Experts believe that it needs at least five more quiet years to finish this phase of its build-up.
6) Ironically, in 2004, the U.S. uncovered an alleged assassination plot by another U.S. national against King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia himself, not his ambassador. In that plot, the U.S. asserted that it confiscated more than a $340,000 payoff from former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddhafi for the killing of the Saudi monarch.
The Bush and Blair administrations, which were in bed with Gaddhafi at the time, negotiating the surrender of his nuclear programs, did not threaten or impose any sanctions on the former Libyan regime because of the plot. Although the U.S. sentenced the alleged U.S. conspirator to 23 years in prison, the Saudi king pardoned the alleged assassin who was arrested in Saudi Arabia.
However, this time the reaction by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia was not only swift and harsh, but threatening and escalating.
7) Since the inception of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia has been very nervous. It has sent its army to Bahrain to crack down on the popular protests, while bribing its citizens and inviting the monarchs of Jordan and Morocco to join the GCC alliance in order to halt any movements in these countries towards a constitutional monarchy.
Meanwhile, throughout this year the Saudi media has been relentless in its attacks against Iran, presenting it as a "Shi'a" nation and a "Persian" power set on taking over the Arab Sunni countries in the region. It is an old tactic used by authoritarian regimes to focus the public's attention on an external enemy to deflect from the popular demands for democracy and civil rights and against repression and corruption as demonstrated by the Arab uprisings throughout the region. This alleged plot plays into the hands of those who want to escalate the confrontation with Iran inside Saudi Arabia.
8) But the clear winners of any escalation with Iran are those who want to attack Iran militarily in the region, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia. In one of the Wikileaks documents released recently, the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia cabled back to the State Department that King Abdullah wanted a U.S-led military confrontation with Iran. He said that the Saudi monarch wanted to "cut the head of the snake" in the region.
Moreover, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who resigned a year ago, described the current Israeli government as "dangerous and irresponsible." Last spring he told the Israeli Haaretz newspaper that Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu would attack Iran and that doing so would be "the stupidest thing." When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack, Dagan, said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."
According to The Forward, 12 of the 18 living ex-chiefs of Israel's two security agencies (Mossad and Shin Bet), have been opposing an open war with Iran and are "either actively opposing Netanyahu's stances or have spoken out against them."
So the trick for the right-wing Israeli government has been how to drag the U.S. into this war and make it an American-Iranian confrontation rather than an Israeli-Iranian conflict.
To sum up, this alleged plot actually raises more questions than it
answers. It's supposedly led by a "goofy," unsuccessful
U.S-Iranian dual citizen, who is neither religious nor ideological; manipulated
by an informant of a U.S. law enforcement agency fronting as an assassin for a
Mexican drug cartel; recruited without vetting by one of the most elite and
disciplined organizations in the world, while paying only 7-percent of the
contract to assassinate the ambassador to a country (Saudi Arabia) with which
Iran is trying to have a good relationship, in a country (the U.S) with which it
is trying to avoid any confrontation, while leaving money transfers, telephone
intercepts, and clues behind.
If this sounds
illogical, then who is behind this amateurish plot?
It is unlikely that there are so-called rouge elements within the IRGC that want to drag the U.S. into a confrontation with Iran. That would amount to virtual suicide within the Iranian establishment. There is no history of such behavior even when the country was militarily much weaker and politically unstable.
Thus, to best answer the question is to identify those who would benefit the most from a confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Clearly those who have the most to gain from such a clash are Israel and the Iranian opposition, particularly the Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO).
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