However, in Washington, where the neocons remain very influential -- and where no one wants to be viewed as not giving credit to "the troops" -- the myth grew that Bush's "surge" had brought the violence under control. Gen. David Petraeus, who took command of Iraq after Bush yanked Casey and Abizaid, was elevated into hero status as the military genius who achieved "victory at last" in Iraq (as Newsweek declared).
Oddly, the inconvenient reality that the United States was unceremoniously ushered out of Iraq in 2011 has not dented this cherished conventional wisdom about the "successful surge." To the degree the forced withdrawal is noted at all, it is in neocon op-eds accusing Obama of turning a hard-earned victory into a self-inflicted defeat.
Still Relevant
This point about whether the Iraq "surge" should be viewed historically as a failure is not simply an academic matter, nor is it strictly a human tragedy for all the young lives destroyed and the families devastated. The "surge" myth continues to shape policy.
It was Official Washington's certitude about the "successful surge" in Iraq -- and the supposed brilliance of Gen. Petraeus -- that framed the debate in 2009 about the struggling Afghan War, with Obama bowing to advice from Bush's holdover Defense Secretary Robert Gates, as well as Petraeus, that a similarly sized "surge" was needed in Afghanistan.
Despite resistance from Vice President Joe Biden (who favored a more targeted counter-terrorism approach) and despite Obama's insistence on an exit strategy (which Gates and the commanders slow-rolled), the Afghan War hawks got pretty much what they wanted in terms of troops and resources for a stepped-up counterinsurgency war.
Now, three years later, as U.S. fatalities in Afghanistan approach 2,000, it is a painful fact that about two-thirds of those killed have died since Obama's "surges" began. The decade-long war -- and the troop frustrations from multiple deployments -- also have contributed to atrocities against Afghans, including the recent massacre of nine children and seven other civilians by an allegedly deranged Army sergeant.
The arc of the Afghan War appears, too, to be following the course of the Iraq War, as Obama and his current Defense Secretary Leon Panetta accelerate timetables for a U.S. drawdown through 2012 and 2013 with the U.S. combat role supposedly coming to an end, assuming Obama wins a second term.
Republican front-runner Mitt Romney has largely handed over his foreign policy to neocon war hawks who have indicated they might reverse the de-escalation. However, except for the possibility that a President Romney (or some other Republican) might hand the neocons another blank check for an expanded war, the conflict in Afghanistan looks to be on a bumpy glide path to another U.S. military defeat.
And, to the degree that neocons do recognize the outcome of the two wars as mostly disasters, the blame will be placed on Obama, who will be said to have not only betrayed Bush's "successful surge" in Iraq but failed to pull off his own in Afghanistan.
Petraeus, now director of the CIA, will remain an icon of Official Washington, held in esteem much the way that Gen. Colin Powell was until his deceptive Iraq War speech to the United Nations in 2003 was revealed to be a pack of lies. Retired Defense Secretary Gates, another hero of Bush's Iraq "surge," surely will retain his status as a modern-day Washington "wise man."
Both Petraeus and Gates will undoubtedly be consulted by future presidents, whether Republican or Democratic. And, the pundits -- whether on MSNBC or Fox News -- will stick with their beloved "group think" regarding the "successful surge" in Iraq, ignoring the wasted lives, the squandered treasure and the outcome.
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